Pricci's Free Daily Feature Race Analysis
Five days per week and every racing day during the Saratoga meet, John Pricci will provide horse racing selections of that day's feature race. When the racing schedule dictates otherwise, there will be analysis from other major thoroughbred Tracks
. Check back here 5 days a week for free horse racing selections.
In addition to his race analysis, John will provide commentary in a weekly "On the Line"
column and daily blogs under the "Pricci's Morning Line"
Thursday, December 11, 2008
Singing in the Rain
Today’s feature is a good one, the Parlay Me overnight stakes at six furlongs that has attracted a field of talented sprinters. What’s problematic is knowing what the likely track condition will be, as yesterday ended with a sealed wet track. Unfortunately, the forecast at this writing is for more precipitation.
There are several among the field of eight who like or can handle wet footing. Accredit (3-1) excels on wet track. Not only is he 3-for-3 on wet tracks but his best figures have come over these surfaces. Kiaran McLaughlin is profitable with third off the layup types and is 29 percent efficient when he taps Alan Garcia.
The fastest horses are performance figures, however, are M J’s Enchanteur (9-2) and Lantana Mob (5-2).
The early line favorite is clearly the fastest horse and has been highly competitive in graded stakes. Further, his best game is as a stretch-running sprinter and there’s plenty of gas in this heat. Ramon Dominguez helps, of course, and so does an outside post in wet footing. But clearly he’s been better on dry tracks.
M J’s Enchanteur makes his second start off a layup, handles wet footing, is also drawn outside and holds a formidable pace edge here. The Scott Lake horses have come out firing of late and the sharpster’s pace edge will allow him to dictate to this field. Josue Arce has a lower profile than his rivals here, but is a profitably remarkable 24 percent efficient in sprints after 257 rides.
Taking the likely value offered with M J’s Enchanteur to win at 4-1 or greater and keying him first and second in exactas with his rivals here.
Running Totals: (325) 98-66-44. Total Dollar Return: $686.90 [win selections only]
Written by John Pricci
Wednesday, December 10, 2008
Nothing Could Be Finah… Second Verse
The racetrack cliché among the old-timers is that the place you lose it is the place you get it back. In today’s preliminary allowances/optional claimer for fillies and mares 3 & up going a mile and seventy yards, today’s Aqueduct winter track route is where My Dinah (7-2) gets it back for readers of this space.
We liked her last out when she was asked to go nine furlongs on a main track covered in a sea of slop. She handled the conditions, but she didn’t love it, and how can you kick home strongly at that distance after stalking in the middle of the track throughout? The answer is you really can’t.
Trainer Kathleen Feron has entered her back quickly--10 days--indicating she’s a stout miss, as her pedigree would indicate, the underrated Jose Espinosa takes the re-ride and today’s shorter distance will help her punch in more effectively. Her performance figures have been consistently good at this level of competition.
Taking My Dinah to win at 3-1 or greater and keying her first and second in exactas with Discovery Launch (10-1), dropping a notch and projected as a loose early leader, and One Step Ahead (7-2), 1-for-1 in the Levine barn and picking up Rajiv Maragh, in the midst of a career year and riding with great confidence of late. Trifecta players can add Mikeslittlegirl (3-1), coming off a delayed pace improvement in its last dirt race, to their mix.
Running Totals: (324) 98-66-44. Total Dollar Return: $686.90 [win selections only]
Written by John Pricci
Sunday, December 07, 2008
The Race Goes to the Swift
State-breds take the featured stage in the Damon Runyon for state-bred two-year-old colts and geldings going a two-turn mile and 70 yards. Lots of guessing involved here but we’ll keep it relatively simple, going with a colt that showed dramatic improvement in his second start and another that has experience and has been stakes toughened.
It’s not so much that Haynesfield’s (7-2) figures improved dramatically in start two, which it did, but it was more about the way he did it. It was as if he learned tons from his debut, distributing his energy much more efficiently. The Asmussen barn wisely gave him more than ample recovery time and has found a logical spot for his two-turn debut. Bred to handle added distance on the dam’s side; he has early speed, the pole and Ramon Dominguez, a formidable trio.
Tall Poppi (3-1) has raced five times, has experience going long and has met several hard hitters. While second in three starts, it might be too early to give up on the son of Intidab. In his most recent start, the Great White Way division of the NY Stallion, he ran into a colt, Lookin At Her, who gave a career best performance that afternoon. He’s worked thrice since that effort, including two recent bullets. His stalking style and Eibar Coa should insure a good trip, as several appear capable of pressing Haynesfield early.
Still, we’re playing the percentages, and the figures, and taking Haynesfield to win at 2-1 or greater, and boxing him in the exacta with Tall Poppi.
Running Totals: (323) 97-66-44. Total Dollar Return: $680.80 [win selections only]
Written by John Pricci