Pricci's Free Daily Feature Race Analysis

Whenever his daily work schedule permits, HorseRaceInsider executive editor John Pricci will analyze that day's feature race from a major thoroughbred-racing jurisdiction.

Saturday, June 04, 2011

A Passion for Speed

Today’s Belmont feature is the Grade 2 Vagrancy Handicap for fillies and mares going 6-½ furlongs and it doesn’t appear that the run of short-priced winners of the Belmont headliner will end this afternoon.

It might be possible that Hilda’s Passion (3-5) will go the other way after her scintillating performances in SoFla this winter and a very demanding second-place finish in the G1 Humana Distaff on the Derby undercard.

But she figures to gain the lead easier today while competing over a distance at which she’s never lost. She’s back in a month, not too soon but perhaps not long enough either. And at 123 pounds, she spots her rivals, some of which look to have some upside potential, anywhere from seven to 10 pounds. Not easy.

But her figures simply tower over the competition and even with a regression looms the most likely winner.

Taking Hilda’s Passion to win, no price restrictions, and keying her in the multiples with Erin Rose (6-1) and Streaker (4-1).

Running Totals: (871) 275-178-119 Total Dollar Return: $1,914.20 [win selections only]

Written by John Pricci


Friday, June 03, 2011

No Day to Play Beat the Favorite

Ava K., the 8-5 favorite in today’s Wandering Cloud at Belmont Park for state-bred fillies, is going to be a tough out. Besides the fact she started her career on a three race win streak, it was enough inspiration for her connections to try open graded company. Back to reality with a sharp blowout here.

I was considering taking likely value with second off-the-shelf Miss Valentine, with a rider switch and a sharp work or Sentimental Lass, a returnee that’s 2-for-2 over the local track. The problem is I’m not sure which way to go there but am confident that Ava K’s best is more than good enough.

Taking Ava K to win, no price restrictions, and keying her in multiples with her rivals here.

Running Totals: (870) 274-178-119 Total Dollar Return: $1,911.00 [win selections only]

Written by John Pricci


Thursday, June 02, 2011

There’s No Hop Like a Good Drop

There are dropdowns and there are dropdowns; the idea is to figure the reason why, of course.

In the case of Rogue Victory (3-1) in today’s Belmont Park feature on the inner turf, this looks like a dropping to win slot.

Hindered by some tough trips and possibly unsuitable ground at GP, the drop to 50K makes sense for trying to get the 6-year-old back on the good foot.

Consider also that Weaver’s horses are running well at the meet, that the horse is consistently faster on the Equiform scale, likes this course and switches to Dominguez. Lots of plusses to spring a minor upset.

Taking Rogue Victory to win at 2-1 or greater and an exacta box with Colonialism (2-1) who keeps marching forward, but is a tad slower and likely to be overbet.

Running Totals: (869) 273-178-119 Total Dollar Return: $1,903.60 [win selections only]

Written by John Pricci


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