Pricci's Free Daily Feature Race Analysis

Five days per week and every racing day during the Saratoga meet, John Pricci will provide horse racing selections of that day's feature race. When the racing schedule dictates otherwise, there will be analysis from other major thoroughbred Tracks. Check back here 5 days a week for free horse racing selections.

In addition to his race analysis, John will provide commentary in a weekly "On the Line" column and daily blogs under the "Pricci's Morning Line" banner.



Sunday, December 30, 2007


Run With the Value


Today’s Alex M Robb for state-breds going a mile and a sixteenth for 3-year-olds and up is a good one, and a good betting race, too. The strength is all outside in this full field, from the 7 post, out; Indian Hawke (5-2), Run With the Lark (6-1), Who What Win (5-1) and Naughty New Yorker (3-1).

Indian Hawke is co-fastest on performance figures, has excellent tactical speed and is extremely sharp right now for Tony Dutrow and Alan Garcia, a tandem that’s 44 % effective when they hook up. Add the fact that the streaking speedster loves the surface and you know he will be a tough out.

When last seen, Naughty New Yorker was finishing third in the Grade 1 Cigar mile. Guess you might say he rates a class edge vs. his native New Yorkers. But this is a pretty salty group, he’s drawn the extreme outside and that first turn comes up pretty quickly. Furthermore he’s picking up 7 pounds and likes the winter surface. Jean-Luc Samyn gets along with him very well.

Who What Win earned an excellent figure over this surface last season, comes up to this in excellent form and attracts Ramon Dominguez. But what sets him apart from most of the others is the fact he’s never finished worse than second in 10 starts on this surface, including four wins. He’s also a four-time winner at the distance.

Run With the Lark has never raced in better form and hails from a barn that has had a resurgent season, and will end the year with a flat-bet profit. That’s what happens when starters outrun their odds. With lots of speed signed on, the Rick Schosberg runner fits the race shape very well and Norberto Arroyo fits him extremely well. Off all the major contenders, he is the one most likely to fall through the wagering cracks.

Taking the value on Run With the Lark at 6-1 or greater, and keying him first and second in exactas with his three main rivals, and in all money positions in the trifecta.

Running Totals: (152) 55-33-16. Total Dollar Return: $333.10 [win selections only]

Written by John Pricci

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Saturday, December 29, 2007


Taking a Horse for Course and the Longer Dutrow


Today’s Grade 3 Gravesend has attracted six fast sprinters, almost all of them capable of winning this contentious feature for three-year-olds and up. We’ll concentrate on three, from the inside, out: Pavo (7-2), P. Kerney (6-1) and City Attraction (2-1).

We’ve been waiting for Pavo to race back for two reasons: He’ll be making his first start off Tony Dutrow’s claim, a 27 % scenario, and for him to get back on his favorite surface. And we know this how? Because three of his four lifetime wins have come on this ground and his fastest performance figure also came over this surface. Add the pole, Ramon Dominguez and lots of early gas to suit his late kick and you have a plausible situation for victory.

P. Kerney is racing in excellent form and offers good value if anywhere near early line odds at off time. He owns an excellent blend of speed and stamina, a rare gift even at this level, has been working bullets at his Laurel base, and trainer Mike Trombetta is profitable when his runners make their second start off a layup. Since Trombetta’s claim, he’s won three of five, all beneath Travis Dunkelberger, who takes the jaunt up I-95 for the mount.

City Attraction is the logical early favorite. Reserved by Rick Dutrow is favor of this spot, his performance figures are consistently faster than most of his rivals here, he owns tactical speed, and seems to do his best running outside rivals. Drawing post six in a small field could not suit his talents any better. Dutrow owns a career flat-bet profit in graded stakes. Like we said, it’s a beauty.

Taking surface loving Pavo to win at 3-1 or greater and keying him first and second in exactas with his two main rivals here. Trifecta players can add Joey P. to their mix in money positions.

Running Totals: (151) 55-33-16. Total Dollar Return: $333.10 [win selections only] {Friday results not included}

Written by John Pricci

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Friday, December 28, 2007


Pick An Entry, Any Entry


An entertaining but not very interesting feature--a non-winners of 3 other/than allowances optional $75,000 claimer. That’s because six of the eight entrants are coupled overnight, leaving at most five betting interests.

The major contenders appear to be the Tony Dutrow entry of Lord Snowden and Morine’s Victory (7-5) the coupling of Leonardo and Touchdown Kid (8-5) through common ownership interests, and the Levine entry of Callmetony and Man of Danger (3-1).

The Dutrow entry seems the most formidable. Both Lord Snowden and Morine’s Victory can win although only one will start since Ramon Dominguez is named on both horses. Morine’s Victory is, by definition, the fastest horse on performance figures, is a win machine with a lifetime mark of 18 wins from 40 starts, and likes the inner track, with a (2) 1-1-0 across the board. Lord Snowden, meanwhile, is winless in four starts over the ground but has been second in three of four starts and fit’s the race shape nicely as a late runner in a speed laden group.

Leonardo appears the stronger of the common-ownership coupling. He has much potential as a late developing soon-to-be four-year-old and has held his own in stakes competition elsewhere. His mate, touchdown Kid, is 2-for-4 over this surface, comes from the resurgent barn of Rick Schosberg and an outside draw fits his close-up stalking style.

Callmetony is clearly the stronger of the Levine coupling. He has excellent tactical speed, the rail post to facilitate a good stalking trip and once again tries his best distance, 20-for-26 in the money with nine wins at three-quarters of a mile. Actually, a tough trip in last probably cost him his 10th.

It will be tough taking money from this race unless Dutrow scratches Morine’s Victory and goes solely with Lord Snowden, who would be a much bigger price of the two. So, we’ll take the Dutrow entry to win, no price parameters, and an exacta key first and second with the two major contenders here.

Running Totals: (151) 55-33-16. Total Dollar Return: $333.10 [win selections only]

Written by John Pricci

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