Pricci's Free Daily Feature Race Analysis
Five days per week and every racing day during the Saratoga meet, John Pricci will provide horse racing selections of that day's feature race. When the racing schedule dictates otherwise, there will be analysis from other major thoroughbred Tracks
. Check back here 5 days a week for free horse racing selections.
In addition to his race analysis, John will provide commentary in a weekly "On the Line"
column and daily blogs under the "Pricci's Morning Line"
Sunday, December 02, 2007
Speed Kills in Big A Feature
Today’s feature is the East View Stakes for state-bred juvenile fillies going around two turns at a mile and a sixteenth. The group is long on speed and questionable on staying power; that’s the quandary here.
Sherine (2-1) is a worthy favorite. Fastest on performance figures, she has excellent early speed and can sustain that speed strongly to the wire. At least she’s done that sprinting, and has enough bottom-side pedigree for the stretch out as a granddaughter of Red Ransom. And inside post and the presence of Alan Garcia only helps.
Meriwether Jessica (5-2) is the logical and main contender. She placed gamely in the open class Grade 3 Tempted last out and was reserved from a subsequent start in open company in favor of this two-turner vs. state-breds. Eibar Coa takes the ride for steady patron Linda Rice who’s been on a roll since Saratoga, especially with her young New York-breds. The fast working ’Jessica’ should be rating just off the pace and will make her presence known just before turning for home.
But we’ll take the speedy Sherine to win at 8-5 or greater and an exacta box with the Rice filly. Trifecta players should consider using two-day turn-around Jovanna (4-1) and long-winded Deities Day (6-1) in both in-the-money positions.
Running Totals: (140) 50-30-16. Total Dollar Return: $294.20 [win selections only]
Written by John Pricci
Saturday, December 01, 2007
Oprah Stumps for Dutrow in Big A Feature
Today’s stakes is the Garland and Roses for sprinting fillies, three-year-olds and up, at six furlongs. The two favorites were last seen on Breeders’ Cup weekend in New Jersey and neither won on those horrifically sloppy tracks. Finding the circle here will be much easier.
Oprah Winney (6-5) is a worthy favorite. She consistently faster on performance figures, enjoys a wide class edge on her company lines, has won half her 10 starts at the distance and is 2-for-5 on this surface. Rick Dutrow is batting 32 percent at this meet and young star Alan Garcia gets the call.
Control System (4-1) was a very willing third in the Miss Woodford on Friday of Breeders’ Cup weekend, took the Grade 3 Cicada in her only winter track appearance and at 116 pounds gets a significant eight pounds from the favorite. She boasts a best of 61 :48 second breeze at her Laurel base for this and trainer Michael Trombetta has won with three of is last nine shippers into New York. She has a puncher’s chance given those variables but Oprah Winney just looks like too much filly in this spot.
Taking Oprah Winney to win at even money or greater and an exacta box with Control System. To maximize the play, we will key Oprah Winney first and second in trifectas with Control system, and add sharp shipper Coli Bear (8-1) and fresh three-year-old Cash’s Girl (10-1) to the mix second and third.
Running Totals: (139) 50-30-15. Total Dollar Return: $294.20 [win selections only]
Written by John Pricci
Friday, November 30, 2007
It’s Between the Brothers, Players
It’s that time of year when the Dutrows and Levines and Contessas excel: Winter Track time. But in today’s feature, it’s Dutrow that holds the upper hand. Which Dutrow? Read on.
More notorious on the national scene, Rick Dutrow is on a local roll, winning with every third starter he’s saddled at the meet. In this contest, he has Mr. Umphrey (3-1), who owns the fastest recent performance figure by virtue of a neck defeat in a small sprint stakes at the Meadowlands. Back in a “non-winners of three other than maiden or claiming or optional $75,000 claimer,” he also sheds four pounds with the switch to stable apprentice Angel Arroyo. A repeat of his most recent effort puts him in the circle here.
But the preferred Dutrow, Pavo, will be saddled by brother Anthony, as part of a stable coupling with Morine’s victory, the second fastest of this group. But it’s recent claim Pavo (7-2) we’re interested in here. The five-year-old gelding loves the winter track. All his best races have come on this surface and he’ll go first time for a man that’s 29 percent efficient on this track, showing a profit of nearly 10 cents on the dollar given a sample of over 300 races. Add in the fact that this chestnut’s big late kick fit’s the race shape today and will be partnered by Ramon Dominguez, who rides at 34 percent for the “lesser known” Dutrow sibling.
Taking Pavo to win at 5-2 or greater and an exacta box with Mr. Umphrey. Will also try to optimize the play with a trifecta key of Pavo first and second with Mr. Umphrey, surface-loving dropdown Southern Missile (12-1), and the well connected, well spotted, Callmetony (5-1).
Running Totals: (138) 49-30-15. Total Dollar Return: $289.90 [win selections only]
Written by John Pricci