Pricci's Free Daily Feature Race Analysis
Five days per week and every racing day during the Saratoga meet, John Pricci will provide horse racing selections of that day's feature race. When the racing schedule dictates otherwise, there will be analysis from other major thoroughbred Tracks
. Check back here 5 days a week for free horse racing selections.
In addition to his race analysis, John will provide commentary in a weekly "On the Line"
column and daily blogs under the "Pricci's Morning Line"
Sunday, December 21, 2008
Neon Lights Are Bright Everywhere
With Tampa dark until mid-week, we’ll return to NOLA for today’s feature from the Fair Grounds, a non-winners of 4 other-than allowances/optional claimer. It has drawn an extremely competitive field of eight crack sprinters going three-quarters with lots of questions.
There are returnees from layups, move-ups, drop-downs, most all from leading barn. In fact, Tom Amoss has two of the eight, uncoupled, and we happen to prefer the longer of the two, Truelyonbroadway, 6-1 on the early line.
No guesswork involved here. He’s making his third start off a layup, has had two strong five-furlong moves from his last start, and it just happens that Mr. Amoss is a profitable 31 percent efficient in this third-off-a-layoff scenario.
Jockey James Graham has been doing excellent work for Amoss recently and so they’ll try to continue that roll here. Nicely drawn outside, his style fit’s the race shape suitably and he loves this surface, the scene of his best two lifetime performance figures.
However, we don’t have any suitable ideas for multiple-pool wagers; actually we have too many.
Taking Truelyonbroadway to win and place at 4-1 or greater.
Running Totals: (331) 100-69-44. Total Dollar Return: $699.30 [win selections only]
Written by John Pricci
Saturday, December 20, 2008
This Time, Asmussen’s the Hunter
Today’s feature at the Fair Grounds, featuring an All-Stakes 50-Cent Pick Five, is the Woodchopper for three-year-olds going a mile on turf. It marks te return of Preakness runnerup and Jim Dandy winner Macho Again (3-1). However, it will be his first start on turf. If he likes it, he’ll outclass this group easily. And Dallas Stewart is profitable off a layup and first-time turf. But the price will reflect all this.
The fastest horse on performance figures is Myboycharlie (5-2), a winner of half his eight starts, all on turf, and his last was on this course, at this distance. Jamie Theriot will ride him back for Cody Autrey, who’s currently at 35 percent for the meet. While he won his last on the pace, he won from off the pace in his native Ireland. The only knock, aside from the expected short price, is that he’s coming back on 14 days rest, a little quick.
Jimmy Simms (7-2) is slower but is developing beautifully for Steve Asmussen. Coming off an Equiform turf decline line (TDL), he poised to moved forward, is nicely drawn inside and gave way grudgingly after a stretch lone battle in the Grade 3 Commonwealth. He’s worked thrice since and stable rider Shaun Bridgmohan rides him back. Given the stiffness of the competition, you’d like to receive early line odds, which seems unlikely.
Taking Jimmy Simms to win at 7-2 or greater and keying him first and second in exactas and trifectas with his two rivals here.
Running Totals: (330) 99-69-44. Total Dollar Return: $691.50 [win selections only]
Written by John Pricci
Friday, December 19, 2008
Better a Short Price….
Today’s feature from Tampa Bay Downs, the eighth race, is a money allowances sprint that has attracted some of the fastest sprinters on the East coast not stabled at major tracks.
They can run but there are questions to answer. Will Bernie Blue (2-1), the horse with the consistently fastest figures--and by a significant margin, translate those figures from Mountaineer to Tampa?
Will Man In Gray (3-1) benefit from a recent return from a freshening? Is Tampa loving On the Vineyard (4-1) ready off only one race following a year’s layup? Can Riversrunrylee (6-1) with competitive internal figures turn back effectively?
If On the Vineyard remembers who he is, he can be more than competitive in this spot. He was, after all, competitive enough to win a stakes at Suffolk last year at 3. Man In Gray has competitive figures from the Delaware circuit and Tim Ritchie is profitable for a career with his shippers. He worked a bullet half mile over the track for his Tampa debut.
But there’s too much guesswork involved, and that’s never a good idea. Taking Bernie Blue to win, no price restrictions, and keying him first and second in trifectas with his three rivals here.
Running Totals: (329) 99-68-44. Total Dollar Return: $691.50 [win selections only]
Written by John Pricci