Pricci's Free Daily Feature Race Analysis

Whenever his daily work schedule permits, HorseRaceInsider executive editor John Pricci will analyze that day's feature race from a major thoroughbred-racing jurisdiction.

Friday, April 09, 2010

The Vision is Karelian

Today’s feature at Keeneland Race Course is the G1 Maker’s Mark Mile which is always a competitive event. Today’s renewal is no different.

Clearly, Court Vision (6-5) is a worthy favorite. He likes the mile distance, owns superior performance figures, proven class and perennial Keeneland riding power, Robby Albarado.

In fact, part owner IEAH Stables has entered Pictural, an uncoupled 30-1 stablemate who doubtlessly has been entered to ensure an honest pace. Sometimes, however, overmatched “rabbits” can play into the competition’s hands. They could be the case here.

Karelian (5-2) is a remarkable hard-hitting old pro. After setting a soft pace recently, he held with determination to staff off champion Gio Ponti, has been briefly freshened, and now returns at his best distance.

A winner of half his eight starts at the distance with two seconds, he was beaten a scant nose by the favorite in the G1 Shadwell Mile here last fall.

Coming into this in virtually the same form, and given Karelian’s tactical speed with a switch to Julien Leparoux, he should get first run and hang on for the score, getting four pounds.

Taking Karelian to win at 5-2 or greater and an exacta box with Court Vision.

Running Totals: (626) 195-126-88 Total Dollar Return: $1,351.30 [win selections only]

Written by John Pricci


Wednesday, April 07, 2010

Franny Freud First

With the prestigious Keeneland meet underway, we’re going to Bluegrass country for today’s Grade 2 Beaumont for 3-year-old fillies going about 7 furlongs on the Beard Course.

And there’s no reason to make this any more difficult than it should be. Franny Freud (9-5) is just too talented for this group with her tactical speed, kick, love for synthetic surfaces and superior performance figures.

Now as long as Garrett Gomez doesn’t pull a Lookin At Lucky, she appears unbeatable. Her spacing off a lifetime best effort is sufficient and trainer John Terranova is a profitable 26 percent efficient with horses returning in this timeframe.

Taking Franny Freud to win, no price restrictions, boxing her in the exacta with synthetics specialist Chantilly Nayla (3-1) and using a price shot, improving, sharp- working Grand Affair (15-1) second and third in the multiple pool mix.

Running Totals: (625) 194-126-88 Total Dollar Return: $1,348.30 [win selections only]

Written by John Pricci


Tuesday, April 06, 2010

Missbauer Regrets She Must Beat the Favorite Today

This one’s for Wendell because turf writers can’t live on stakes races alone. (Actually, that’s not true and neither is it because he deserves humoring. It’s because Philly Park is the only Equiform data to have arrived in my mailbox yesterday).

But the feature ninth route, fillies and mares, 3 & Up, starter allowances is quite contentious. We give four out of seven a chance. (It really was five but I was too embarrassed to admit it).

Octomon (3-1) is a strong contender. She’s not taken a step back on performance figures in four lifetime starts and goes for the Preciado barn, 29 percent with second-start-for-barn entrants. Syllogism, however is a worthy (2-1) favorite.

Claimed from O’Neill two back which qualified her for the $12,500 level, she was second and won in two starts since haltered and goes fro a barn that’s a profitable 27 percent with horses attempting repeats.

But it’s Missbauer (6-1) which provides the value here. The three-year-old filly has raced her way into top form and finally was stretched out to a route of ground, something for which she’s bred both sides of the pedigree.

Coming off a competitive-figure career best effort, she’s been given sufficient recovery time, has worked smartly, gets in with 107 pounds and actually defeated the favorite last time out.

Taking Missbauer to win at 9-2 or greater, keying her first and second in exactas with her rivals here. Trifecta players should add value laden Minor Issues (10-1) to their mix.

Running Totals: (624) 194-126-88 Total Dollar Return: $1,348.30 [win selections only]

Written by John Pricci


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