Pricci's Free Daily Feature Race Analysis

Whenever his daily work schedule permits, HorseRaceInsider executive editor John Pricci will analyze that day's feature race from a major thoroughbred-racing jurisdiction.

Saturday, November 27, 2010

Back to New York, Back to the Circle

As stated, today’s Cigar Mile is a wide open affair, with more than one, capable, wake-up possibility and an couple of sharp runners that will find this test tougher than their last. We find the most interesting to be two wake-up possibilities; Girolamo (5-2) and Musket Man (9-2).

It’s unfortunate the former is coupled with Vineyard Haven, an acknowledged miler who was favored to win this race last year and went well on BC Saturday. Girolamo simply never got untracked from poor inside position.

Also, he might have reacted to his G1 Vosburgh win, a lifetime best. He is 2-for-3 at the distance and his trainer is lights out with the sprint to route stretch-out. Th only concerns are his pole position and unfamiliarity with Aqueduct.

Musket Man is better than his Classic, much better, clearly a throw-out effort. Besides, he’s more miler type that true route type, lost the G1 Carter on this track by a nose and was second this spring to Quality Road to Quality Road in the prestigious Met Mile. And he has a far better post than Girolamo.

We taking Girolamo as the most probable winner at 2-1 or greater, exacta boxes with Musket Man and Friend Or Foe (8-1) , and keying him first and second in exotics also using Haynesfield (7-2) and Bribon (3-1).

Running Totals: (768) 246-159-103 Total Dollar Return: $1,703.50 [win selections only] {Friday results not included}

Written by John Pricci


Thursday, November 25, 2010

A Value Expedition in Contentious Clark

Opting for Churchill today for the Grade 1 Clark at nine furlongs, a race that helped launch Blame on a career that finds him a finalist in the 2010 Horse of the Year completion. From the same barn comes Apart (7-2), a very promising three-year-old who, at this point at least, is clearly not as accomplished.

Having drawn a limit field, including the very talented Successful Dan (5-2), who not taken any backward steps in his development and is 2-for-2 over the surface, there is some question as to whether he’s up to this. He likely is but at early line odds is an underlay.

Instead, we’ll reach out for Redding Colliery (10-1), an underappreciated accomplished four-year-old who’s coming off a score in the G2 Hawthorne Gold Cup, a race that has produced a next out winner from one starter and whose connections opted for this rather than a Breeders’ Cup go. More than ever, that looks like a prudent choice.

Among the fastest here on performance figures, he’s a speed-type router able to stalk from close range. Nicely drawn mid-pack with the very capable Rosie Napravnik, he should establish good position behind Regal Ransom and make his run when ready. He’s continued to train very strongly at his Belmont base and is fairly weighted at 117 pounds.

Taking Redding Colliery to win at 6-1 or greater and keying him in all exotic positions with Apart, Successful Dan, Win Willy (10-1) and Duke Of Mischief (12-1).

Running Totals: (768) 246-159-103 Total Dollar Return: $1,703.50 [win selections only]

Written by John Pricci


Wednesday, November 24, 2010

Taking a Short Price Tough to Swallow

Got to love the idea of the G3 Fall Highweight on Thanksgiving, not that the high-weight assignments are like those of a bygone era.

This race is always a tough read, no less so this year. The horses with the best form are coming off near or lifetime tops, which is OK if they weren’t coming back to the races so quickly.

Given all the speed that’s signed on here, we’re looking at a late developing young gelding whose off-the-pace style suits the race shape. That, and the fact it’s one of the “low-weights” at 126 pounds and drawn comfortably outside the speed.

The fact that trainer Dominic Galluscio has been on a bit of a roll of late, and given an early line of 8-1, with a reasonable chance that guesstimate will hold on a young gelding which might just beginning to develop.

Taking Emma’s Posse to win at 8-1 or greater and keying him first and second in exactas with Go Go Shoot (7-2) and Mesa Sunrise (3-1).

Running Totals: (768) 246-159-103 Total Dollar Return: $1,703.50 [win selections only]

Written by John Pricci


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