Pricci's Free Daily Feature Race Analysis

Whenever his daily work schedule permits, HorseRaceInsider executive editor John Pricci will analyze that day's feature race from a major thoroughbred-racing jurisdiction.

Thursday, April 15, 2010

Short-Priced Pletcher Redux

I don’t apologize for picking a short priced winner--though yesterday’s exacta was generous I thought. However, I will say I’m sorry here because I can’t beat another short-priced Todd Pletcher favorite in today’s feature, the Grade 3 Appalachian at Keeneland.

In short, Rose Catherine (7-5) is simply too fast, too accomplished and too well placed under the conditions. Add Garrett Gomez from the pole and how can you beat her? She’s even fresh, especially good for fillies.

So we’re taking the three year old turf specialist to win, no price restrictions, and will try to capitalize in the exacta, key-boxing her, an extra ticket on top, with a pair of potential price shots.

Bay To Bay (8-1) earned competitive figures last year in Canada. That makes her interesting here with the added maturity. Brian Lynch excels with long-layup returnees and Javier Castellano rides her like he owns her. Go Ask Alex (8-1) is not as fast or accomplished but continues to March forward and will be ignored in the betting.

Running Totals: (630) 199-126-88 Total Dollar Return: $1,380.10 [win selections only]

Written by John Pricci


Wednesday, April 14, 2010

A Positive Position on Affirmatif

Today’s feature at Keeneland is a secondary allowances at 5-½ furlongs on turf, which appears a two horse affair between the top two choices.

Evacuation Route (7-2) ships in sharp from Fair Grounds with turf ace James Graham in the boot. He loves this sprint distance--both of his lifetime wins--and hails from a race that already has produced a subsequent winner from two starters. He can come from the clouds or take a tactical position.

But the time to get Affirmatif (8-5) is when he’s fresh, as his debut win at 3 attests. Entered in Saturday’s Shakertown, he was scratched in favor of this softer spot. He’s been training up a storm at Palm Meadows, presumably with the blinkers removed, attracts Garrett Gomez, and Todd Pletcher has been winning turf sprints by the bunches recently.

Taking Affirmatif to win with no price restrictions and an exacta box with Evacuation Route.

Running Totals: (629) 198-126-88 Total Dollar Return: $1,377.30 [win selections only]

Written by John Pricci


Tuesday, April 13, 2010

Bert’s Too Kinky for the Devil

Today’s featured starter allowances at Philadelphia Park offers an opportunity to beat a favorite and that’s what we’ll try to achieve.

As far as I can tell, the best thing Black Tie Only (2-1) has going for him is the barn, Guadalupe Preciado’s. He’s been competing at this level for a lengthy period and only broke through last race with a win on a sloppy track.

His record and pedigree indicates he indeed likes a wet racetrack and there‘s a 50% chance of showers this afternoon. At the price, we‘ll roll the dice.

We’ll take either of two horses coming out of the same sprint which are stretching to a more optimal distance, and either is faster than the choice and both figure to rebound in this spot.

Dapper Devil (7-2) happens to be bred for wet and comes off a sharp, too-late rally in that sprint. He has the best figures in the race by a narrow margin and reunites with Kendrick Carmouche. He might even go favored at post time.

Meanwhile, Bert’s Too Kinky (9-2) owns a wet track win under similar conditions on this track, has won at the distance, switches to Frankie Pennington and goes for a barn that’s profitable with its stretch-outs and has won with this horse thrice off the barn switch, a DQ notwithstanding.

Taking Bert’s Too Kinky to win at 3-1 or greater and an exacta box with his rivals here, an extra ticket with Dapper Devil.

Running Totals: (628) 197-126-88 Total Dollar Return: $1,370.90 [win selections only]

Written by John Pricci


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