Pricci's Free Daily Feature Race Analysis
Five days per week and every racing day during the Saratoga meet, John Pricci will provide horse racing selections of that day's feature race. When the racing schedule dictates otherwise, there will be analysis from other major thoroughbred Tracks
. Check back here 5 days a week for free horse racing selections.
In addition to his race analysis, John will provide commentary in a weekly "On the Line"
column and daily blogs under the "Pricci's Morning Line"
Thursday, January 15, 2009
He’s Not Booing, He’s Saying…
Another starter allowances sprint masquerading as a feature race and half the six-horse field can win it; Forty Third Recon (5-1), Ghost Story (5-2) and Moose Man (3-1).
Gary Contessa looks like he’s up to his old tricks with Forty Third Recon, making a quick turnaround from his last start as he returns on eight days rest. This colt appears highly likely to improve on the bounce-rebound pattern, given the dreaded double top two starts back.
Ghost Story has a similar profile. His debut figure at Calder was excellent but came back with a sub-par performance in his local debut. By definition he is the fastest runner on Equiform figures but knowing which way he will go is not an easy read. The best guess is that he moves forward.
Moose Man’s last was excellent, a good figure score with excellent energy distribution, his space is excellent coming back fresh, and the Steve Klesaris outfit is hitting on all cylinders, both here and at the Fair Grounds. His tactical speed and outside draw in a short field provide an advantage, and a narrow edge here.
Taking Moose Man to win at 5-2 or greater and keying him first and second in exactas and trifectas.
Running Totals: (344) 103-71-46. Total Dollar Return: $731.90 [win selections only]
Written by John Pricci
Wednesday, January 14, 2009
Expecting a Small Fortune
There’s no such thing as a free lunch, but today’s nominal feature for sprinting fillies doesn’t look complicated at all. Of the seven entered in the starter allowances, three figure much better than the rest. Faithful One (5-2), Kiss And Fly (5-1) and She’s My Fortune (2-1) all appear all for a top try.
Faithful One has shown much improved speed with maturity and her last two performance figures indicate another forward move is coming. She has experience, good early speed and can finish. Seven weeks fresh and returning for top connections (Levine/Maragh), she’ll take catching.
Kiss And Fly is interesting in that her form is similar to the choice’s and owns more than one victory, after qualifying for this condition by breaking her maiden for a $50,000 tag or less. With Chad Brown profitable in his first start with new acquisitions, indeed, profitable for his young and promising career, and with Ramon Dominguez in the boot, she’s very tempting at early line odds.
She’s My Fortune, meanwhile, is the likely post time favorite and frankly deserves to be. She’s fastest on performance figures, comes back with good spacing (six weeks), and she fits the race shape ideally, able to stalk the pace comfortably on the outside in a small field before pouncing for Tony Dutrow and Channing Hill.
Taking She’s My Fortune to win at 2-1 or greater and keying her first and second in exactas and trifectas with her rivals here.
Running Totals: (343) 103-71-46. Total Dollar Return: $731.90 [win selections only]
Written by John Pricci
Sunday, January 11, 2009
Cammy Should Be the Choice
Today’s feature is the Soft Morning Stakes restricted to New York bred fillies and mares and appears to be a two-horse battle between the two favorites, the prolific By The Light (8-5) and the sharp invader, Cammy’s Choice (2-1). And if figures are the measure--which they are--the linemaker may have the wrong favorite listed here.
We won’t knock the favorite, considering her (11) 7-3-0 slate, her connections--Dutrow and Richard Migliore--and her style. A mid-race stalker with a favorable outside draw, she figures to get a closing jump on Cammy’s Choice when time comes to run down the speed, of which there is plenty here.
But Cammy’s Choice has significantly faster final figures, hails from a going concern, with trainer Eddie Lehman, who’s posted a lofty 38 percent strike rate and huge ROI figures. She’s had sufficient recovery time since both recent wins following the barn change and her Pha. Park-based rider ships up the turnpike for the ride. We’re taking her to run down the early favorite.
Backing Cammy’s Choice to win at 3-2 or greater and a cold exacta with By The Light.
Running Totals: (342) 103-70-46. Total Dollar Return: $731.90 [win selections only]
Written by John Pricci