Pricci's Free Daily Feature Race Analysis

Whenever his daily work schedule permits, HorseRaceInsider executive editor John Pricci will analyze that day's feature race from a major thoroughbred-racing jurisdiction.

Tuesday, November 30, 2010

Diva’s Gold Going Green

No course in advance handicapping is needed to find the logical favorite and most probable winner in today’s secondary allowance feature at Parx for fillies and mares going a mile and 70 yards.

Ms Vanenzza (2-1) has been competitive in a couple of strongly run overnight stakes, now drops back into allowance company. Trainer Juan Vasquez is batting 30 percent going into the final month of racing in and he’s been getting horses to outrun odds, as indicated by a profitable 2010 ROI. This 3-year-old filly likely will be odds on at post time.

The interesting filly here is the late developing 4-year-old, Diva’s Gold (6-1), who improved dramatically in her second start since Robert Reid’s claim and first on dirt for the new connections. Reid's also having a profitable season.

This miss has a good Parx record with a win and two exacta finishes in three starts over this ground and is a specialist at this hybrid distance, owning a (11) 4-2-1 slate at a mile-and-70. That, and the favorite’s inexperience with this oval, makes the risk worth the potential reward.

Taking Diva’s Gold to win at 5-1 or greater and an exacta box with the favorite.

Running Totals: (770) 246-160-104 Total Dollar Return: $1,703.50 [win selections only]

Written by John Pricci


Saturday, November 27, 2010

Back to New York, Back to the Circle

As stated, today’s Cigar Mile is a wide open affair, with more than one, capable, wake-up possibility and an couple of sharp runners that will find this test tougher than their last. We find the most interesting to be two wake-up possibilities; Girolamo (5-2) and Musket Man (9-2).

It’s unfortunate the former is coupled with Vineyard Haven, an acknowledged miler who was favored to win this race last year and went well on BC Saturday. Girolamo simply never got untracked from poor inside position.

Also, he might have reacted to his G1 Vosburgh win, a lifetime best. He is 2-for-3 at the distance and his trainer is lights out with the sprint to route stretch-out. Th only concerns are his pole position and unfamiliarity with Aqueduct.

Musket Man is better than his Classic, much better, clearly a throw-out effort. Besides, he’s more miler type that true route type, lost the G1 Carter on this track by a nose and was second this spring to Quality Road to Quality Road in the prestigious Met Mile. And he has a far better post than Girolamo.

We taking Girolamo as the most probable winner at 2-1 or greater, exacta boxes with Musket Man and Friend Or Foe (8-1) , and keying him first and second in exotics also using Haynesfield (7-2) and Bribon (3-1).

Running Totals: (768) 246-159-103 Total Dollar Return: $1,703.50 [win selections only] {Friday results not included}

Written by John Pricci


Thursday, November 25, 2010

A Value Expedition in Contentious Clark

Opting for Churchill today for the Grade 1 Clark at nine furlongs, a race that helped launch Blame on a career that finds him a finalist in the 2010 Horse of the Year completion. From the same barn comes Apart (7-2), a very promising three-year-old who, at this point at least, is clearly not as accomplished.

Having drawn a limit field, including the very talented Successful Dan (5-2), who not taken any backward steps in his development and is 2-for-2 over the surface, there is some question as to whether he’s up to this. He likely is but at early line odds is an underlay.

Instead, we’ll reach out for Redding Colliery (10-1), an underappreciated accomplished four-year-old who’s coming off a score in the G2 Hawthorne Gold Cup, a race that has produced a next out winner from one starter and whose connections opted for this rather than a Breeders’ Cup go. More than ever, that looks like a prudent choice.

Among the fastest here on performance figures, he’s a speed-type router able to stalk from close range. Nicely drawn mid-pack with the very capable Rosie Napravnik, he should establish good position behind Regal Ransom and make his run when ready. He’s continued to train very strongly at his Belmont base and is fairly weighted at 117 pounds.

Taking Redding Colliery to win at 6-1 or greater and keying him in all exotic positions with Apart, Successful Dan, Win Willy (10-1) and Duke Of Mischief (12-1).

Running Totals: (768) 246-159-103 Total Dollar Return: $1,703.50 [win selections only]

Written by John Pricci


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