Pricci's Free Daily Feature Race Analysis

Five days per week and every racing day during the Saratoga meet, John Pricci will provide horse racing selections of that day's feature race. When the racing schedule dictates otherwise, there will be analysis from other major thoroughbred Tracks. Check back here 5 days a week for free horse racing selections.

In addition to his race analysis, John will provide commentary in a weekly "On the Line" column and daily blogs under the "Pricci's Morning Line" banner.

Monday, October 12, 2009

Bet Any Denomination You’d Like

Today’s holiday feature at Belmont Park is the Pebbles for three-year-old fillies going one mile on the Widener turf. We would be shocked in the winner didn’t come from among Maram (5-2). Denomination (3-1) and Miss Catalyst (5-1).

Of those, we believe Denomination has the most upside. Going postward first time for Christophe Clement, who’s adding first-Lasix and first-Dominguez, this sophomore was beaten 4-½ lengths by Dynaforce in the Beverley D. Meeting older mares in early August is no small chore.

Further, there’s a lack of pace in this race and it’s interesting to note that she raced on the lead a couple of times in Europe before shipping stateside. Of course, setting the pace on turf Over There is very much anti-profile. Clement was quoted as saying he’s satisfied with her training. I can only tell you that if he weren’t satisfied, she’d be in the barn (see Caribbean Sunset on the JC Gold Cup undercard).

Taking Denomination to win at 5-2 or greater and keying her first and second in exotics with her two rivals here.

Running Totals: (521) 157-106-75 Total Dollar Return: $1,081.30 [win selections only]

Written by John Pricci


Sunday, October 11, 2009

Credentials Trump Potential

The Grade 2 Jerome is an interesting case. Girolamo (8-5) clearly has the most upside, is coming off a favorable Equiform pattern, is working brilliantly, especially his most recent move, and Saeed bin Suroor is a remarkable 47 percent efficient with repeaters.

At present, Kensei (7-5) is the most accomplished. He’s won two Grade 2s this year, including the Dwyer on this track under a similar scenario, a one-turn elongated sprint. He failed to handle mud in the Travers but is now six weeks fresh and drops a notch here.

But the crowd loves potential and will make Girolamo go favorite. They may well be right, but that’s not the way to bet.

Taking Kensei to win, no price restriction, and a quinella with Girolamo.

Running Totals: (521) 156-106-74 Total Dollar Return: $1,081.30 [win selections only]

Written by John Pricci


Saturday, October 10, 2009

From Over There to Charmed Circle Here

The big, big race at Santa Anita today is the Goodwood at 9 furlongs featuring the return of Mine That Bird, Colonel John, Tiazo, the three-year-old Chocolate Candy and all the rest. We’re taking the stranger, a real stranger.

Gitano Hernando (15-1) was pointing for the Kentucky Derby when he was declared from that classic and didn’t return until a few weeks ago at Wolverhampton. Getting a few pounds as a three-year-old, this colt is 2-for-2 on synthetic tracks and ships over for the Team Valor outfit, who knows where to spot the European imports.

His recent prep effort was first rate and Kieren Fallon is not letting this colt get too far away from him. His trainer Marco Botti is considered a young phenom. Obviously, he needs to run well here to return in the Classic next month. The others might not be wound too tightly. That won’t be the case with this guy.

Taking Gitano Hernando to win and place at 12-1 or greater.

Running Totals: (520) 155-106-74 Total Dollar Return: $1,043.30 [win selections only]

Written by John Pricci


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