Pricci's Free Daily Feature Race Analysis

Five days per week and every racing day during the Saratoga meet, John Pricci will provide horse racing selections of that day's feature race. When the racing schedule dictates otherwise, there will be analysis from other major thoroughbred Tracks. Check back here 5 days a week for free horse racing selections.

In addition to his race analysis, John will provide commentary in a weekly "On the Line" column and daily blogs under the "Pricci's Morning Line" banner.

Wednesday, November 25, 2009

We Believe in Mott

Today’s Aqueduct feature, a non-winners of one allowances for fillies and mares sprinting six furlongs is interesting, even if there isn’t a name attached to it. Ultimately, whether I cash or not depends on the confidence I have in Bill Mott to bring a horse back after a layoff since 2008. Since he’s 24 percent efficient with layups of 90 + days, this isn’t a stretch for me.

Sheikh’s Serenade (5-2) is extremely well bred and, on what she’s shown thus far, talented, too. The figure she earned in her juvenile debut was faster than anyone’s run here, and she did it off the bench; today’s scenario. She’s been working bullets for this and doesn’t appear to be a filly that’s “going to need one.”

Taking Sheikh’s Serenade to win at 8-5 or greater and keying her first and second in exotics with Qualia (7-2), an impressive winner of her sloppy track debut, and Kissa Melissa (2-1), who earns remarkably consistent, and fast, performance figures.

Running Totals: (548) 170-107-78 Total Dollar Return: $1,181.20 [win selections only]

Written by John Pricci


Sunday, November 22, 2009

Groomedforvictory Well Spotted, Well Named

The feature at the Big A today is the Study Hard for state-breds going a mile on the main track. Law Enforcement (9-5) is the early favorite and for good reason; by definition he’s the fastest horse attracting Alan Garcia. But taking a short price on a horse inexperienced over the track and who failed to hit the board in his only start going this far doesn’t make sense.

If you were classifying here and were looking for an early line that looked a bit out of line, you would find Naughty New Yorker (5-1), who’s cut his teeth on tougher virtually throughout his career, had an impossible trip in the Empire Classic and has won on this track twice and at the distance thrice. But we still believe he’s more two turns than one.

The only alternative left is Groomedforvictory (5-2) who could not be sharper, has never been off the board in five starts at the distance with three wins and never worse than second in three Aqueduct appearances. Seeking his third straight and with a bullet work for this rise in class and Dominguez on the re-ride, we don’t see we have any alternative.

Taking Groomedforvictory to win at 2-1 or greater and keying him first and second in exotics with his rivals here.

Running Totals: (546) 168-107-78 Total Dollar Return: $1,167.40 [win selections only] {Saturday results not included}

Written by John Pricci


Saturday, November 21, 2009

Value Almost Always Available in Churchill’s Cardinal Handicap

Always an interesting feature and good betting race on the fall docket at Churchill Downs is the Grade 3 Cardinal Handicap for fillies and mares on the turf at nine furlongs.

Today’s field is incredibly evenly matched with many of the entrants dropping out of Grade 1 and Grade 2 stakes, including one from Southern California. The filly we think that has the best chance of falling between the wagering cracks is Acoma, despite early line odds of 5-2.

Making her second start off a freshening, David Carroll has really put her on the fence in the morning and she’s responded with two very sharp and strong breezes. Undefeated in two starts on Churchill turf but inexperienced at the distance, she’s well drawn inside here beneath underrated turf rider Jesus Castanon.

Her strong late kick is suited to the race shape as the Cardinal is top-heavy with speed. Her pedigree is screaming out for today’s added distance and betting value seems assured.

Betting Acoma to win at 3-1 or greater and boxing her in the exacta with price shot Long Approach [12-1]. (The latter is worth a small saver wager to win at 8-1 or more).

Running Totals: (545) 167-107-78 Total Dollar Return: $1,158.00 [win selections only]

Written by John Pricci


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