Pricci's Free Daily Feature Race Analysis

Five days per week and every racing day during the Saratoga meet, John Pricci will provide horse racing selections of that day's feature race. When the racing schedule dictates otherwise, there will be analysis from other major thoroughbred Tracks. Check back here 5 days a week for free horse racing selections.

In addition to his race analysis, John will provide commentary in a weekly "On the Line" column and daily blogs under the "Pricci's Morning Line" banner.

Thursday, October 11, 2007

Danger To Renaissance Lady on Also-Eligibles

Another turf feature to begin the Belmont week but at least we’re going longer today, a mile and a sixteenth on the Widener course for three-year-olds and up, a secondary allowances, $50,000 optional claiming.

Favorite Lady Renaissance (5-2) looks like she holds a wide edge here, coming back for Christophe Clement. Her main rivals are anchored on the also-eligibles, Bridal Path (20-1) and Waquoit’s Love (9-2).

Lady Renaissance is the fastest mare on performance figures, has an excellent turn of foot, top connections and fit’s the race shape nicely. Her outside post is not a positive but she figures to drop well back and come running late for Garrett Gomez, absolutely scary on one-run grass horses. She fits this group nicely.

Bridal Path is the better half of the Peter Kazamias trained coupling. Kazamias is batting a profitable 21 percent for the year and has excellent stats in the second start-off-the-claim category, a scenario both entrants find themselves in here. The early line odds are out of line, given her performance figures and live connections. Seven of nice career wins on grass were at today’s distance.

Waquoit’s Love, like the other fillies mentioned, was compromised by a moderate pace last out and figures to improve markedly. A sharp winner in allowance company last out, she reunites with Cornelio Velasquez, aboard for a victory earlier this summer. She owns a win and placing in three starts on Belmont grass.

Taking Lady Renaissance to win at 2-1 or greater, a possible saver win wager on Bridal Path at 12-1 or greater if she draws in, and exacta key boxes with Lady Renaissance with the other two fillies.

Running Totals: (118) 41-27-13. Dollar Return: $238.40 [win selections only]

Written by John Pricci

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Monday, October 08, 2007

Euro Invader Well Placed in Pebbles

A rare Monday feature in celebration of Columbus Day, the un-graded Pebbles for three-year-old fillies at a mile n the Belmont grass.

This being fall, European invaders show up fairly regularly and the Pebbles has attracted strong contender Medley (5-2). The best American hopes appear to be Queen Joanne (7-2) and New Edition (5-1).

Medley ships in having won two of her last three starts. Her European figures have been more than competitive and foreign sprinters like Medley have proven to make excellent American milers. Christophe Clement wins at a 24% rate with his first-time in U.S. shippers and has been enjoying uncommon success with Garrett Gomez, who takes the mount here. Expect Garrett will keep her covered up inside until he’s ready to pull the string.

Lady Joanne has won two straight for Bill Mott including a score at this distance two back. The problem is that victory came at Saratoga, making it a two turn race. This, obviously, is around one. She’s developed nicely for Mott but was hard pressed to defeat preliminary allowance runners last out.

New Edition has been keep the best company. A pacesetter before tiring in the Grade 1 Garden City at nine furlongs, she placed gamely in the G2 Lake Placid two back for trainer Larry Jones. She has conditioning off a series of turf routes and in young Gabriel Saez has a rider with a bright future. Jones has been using the youngster with success this season. She will be charging down the Widener turf course in the late stages.

Taking the classy invader Medley to win at 8-5 or greater and keying first and second in exactas with her main rivals.

Running Totals: (117) 41-27-13. Dollar Return: $238.40 [win selections only] {Sunday’s results not included}

Written by John Pricci

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Sunday, October 07, 2007

Home Jerome?

Today’s Grade 2 Jerome at one mile for three-year-olds might produce a horse or two for the Breeders’ Cup. We’re thinking the Dirt Mile (mile and 70 yards at Monmouth).

And the three that are most likely in that scenario (Nick Zito’s pair notwithstanding) are, from the inside, out: Digger (7-2), Vitruvius (4-1) and Daaher (2-1).

Digger is the horse that owner Lawrence Roman considered starting in the Belmont Stakes until he suffered a fit of common sense. But he’s very good right now, winning his last at Laurel by nearly 12 lengths in very fast time vs. Maryland-breds. Trainer Dick Dutrow, 28 percent with repeaters, has been on a roll.

Vitruvius made some noise when he broke his maiden at Gulfstream last February. Following a fast allowance win he went to the sidelines with a minor injury but returned in Saratoga to finish a strong-rally despite bearing out the length of the stretch. Today he’s second-time Lasix and back on his favorite surface and optimal distance.

Daaher ran like a wild horse at Saratoga, going to the front and improving his position in a freak-like performance. His race is hard to read, being at nine furlongs and around two turns as opposed to eight and one turn. Visually, he had the look of a potential star.

But we’ll take Vitruvius to win at 3-1 or greater and exacta keys first and second with Digger and Daaher.

Running Totals: (116) 41-27-13. Dollar Return: $238.40 [win selections only] {Saturday’s results not included}

Written by John Pricci

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