Pricci's Free Daily Feature Race Analysis
Five days per week and every racing day during the Saratoga meet, John Pricci will provide horse racing selections of that day's feature race. When the racing schedule dictates otherwise, there will be analysis from other major thoroughbred Tracks
. Check back here 5 days a week for free horse racing selections.
In addition to his race analysis, John will provide commentary in a weekly "On the Line"
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Friday, December 28, 2007
Pick An Entry, Any Entry
An entertaining but not very interesting feature--a non-winners of 3 other/than allowances optional $75,000 claimer. That’s because six of the eight entrants are coupled overnight, leaving at most five betting interests.
The major contenders appear to be the Tony Dutrow entry of Lord Snowden and Morine’s Victory (7-5) the coupling of Leonardo and Touchdown Kid (8-5) through common ownership interests, and the Levine entry of Callmetony and Man of Danger (3-1).
The Dutrow entry seems the most formidable. Both Lord Snowden and Morine’s Victory can win although only one will start since Ramon Dominguez is named on both horses. Morine’s Victory is, by definition, the fastest horse on performance figures, is a win machine with a lifetime mark of 18 wins from 40 starts, and likes the inner track, with a (2) 1-1-0 across the board. Lord Snowden, meanwhile, is winless in four starts over the ground but has been second in three of four starts and fit’s the race shape nicely as a late runner in a speed laden group.
Leonardo appears the stronger of the common-ownership coupling. He has much potential as a late developing soon-to-be four-year-old and has held his own in stakes competition elsewhere. His mate, touchdown Kid, is 2-for-4 over this surface, comes from the resurgent barn of Rick Schosberg and an outside draw fits his close-up stalking style.
Callmetony is clearly the stronger of the Levine coupling. He has excellent tactical speed, the rail post to facilitate a good stalking trip and once again tries his best distance, 20-for-26 in the money with nine wins at three-quarters of a mile. Actually, a tough trip in last probably cost him his 10th.
It will be tough taking money from this race unless Dutrow scratches Morine’s Victory and goes solely with Lord Snowden, who would be a much bigger price of the two. So, we’ll take the Dutrow entry to win, no price parameters, and an exacta key first and second with the two major contenders here.
Running Totals: (151) 55-33-16. Total Dollar Return: $333.10 [win selections only]
Written by John Pricci
Thursday, December 27, 2007
Go Fernando Baby, Go!
No race without a standout should ever really be called easy, especially today’s feature, a secondary allowances/optional $25,000 for state-bred 3-year-olds and up going two turns on the winter track. Like we said, especially not today’s.
It’s drawn a full field replete with classy returnees from long lay-ups, youngsters with good development lines but clearly slower that the group, and a handful of hot barns, too.
In particular, three of the 12 have caught our eye, from the inside, out: Building New Era (3-1), Tergesti (20-1) and Go Fernando Go (7-2). I could go a lot deeper.
Building New Era hails from the prolific Contessa shed and attracts go-to guy, Ramon Dominguez. Nicely drawn inside, he’s drops precipitously, never has raced this cheaply and sports a recent sharp work for this. The big question is are we looking at a negative dropdown here. A soon to be five-year-old, the claiming price gives the impression that the barn might be giving up on this guy. In truth, it’s a tough read.
Tergesti is clearly not as fast on performance figures as the better members of the group but is on a healthy line, hails from an outfit that has enjoyed a comeback season, and has earned his best figures, with consistency, over the Big A’s winter surface. He showed improvement with a recent class drop, is up a notch here, a sign of confidence from the barn, and probably should have won his last if not for a rough trip. He has enough tactical speed to secure a ground saving trip at a huge price.
Go Fernando Go is from the high percentage Tony Dutrow shed, has excellent back figures, by definition the consistently fastest horse here, and has shown a decided preference for the surface. His high turn of early speed should enable him to outrun the group and benefits from a switch to Alan Garcia. Of all the major contenders here--and there are many--this one is most likely to run his race.
Taking track loving speedster Go Fernando Go to win at 5-2 or greater and keying him first and second in exacta boxes with the logical favorite and live price shot.
Running Totals: (150) 55-33-16. Total Dollar Return: $333.10 [win selections only]
Written by John Pricci
Wednesday, December 26, 2007
Truth or Dare
The beginning of the final week of racing in New York this year. And maybe next year, too. Further, there’s a sizable carryover into today’s penultimate leg, a non-winner of 3 other/than, optional claiming $75,000. The 6 furlong sprint for females, 3 & up, has drawn a surprisingly contentious seven horse field.
We’ll look at three major contenders, from the inside, out, Beau Dare (9-2), You Asked (2-1) and Circuit Breaker (3-1).
Beau Dare goes turf to dirt for Bruce Levine, nine for his last 16 given that scenario, and is also profitable when coming off layup of approximately two months. This is a consistently fast and talented speedster, benefits from an inside slip and speed-riding guru, C.C. Lopez. She has the best turn of foot from the gate and has proven to be a one-dimensional type. Figure she’ll be on the engine throughout. If she dirts as well as she turfs, there may be no catching the Bruce Levine speedster.
You Asked comes from top connections, Alan Goldberg and Ramon Dominguez, her late-run style fit’s the speedy race-shape nicely, and hails from a barn whose returnees are better in their second start off a layup--and this 3-year-old won her last. She has been toughened in graded sprints and was second in her only surface start last winter. She’s a worthy favorite.
Circuit Breaker ships in sharp for the Puglisi/Klesaris outfit and Jeremy Rose is in for the ride on this sharp 4-year-old. She, too, has excellent early speed and will probably pressure Beau Dare in the early going, even if her rival does have the benefit of inside position and is a tad faster on performance figures.
Taking the value offered on Beau Dare to win, at 3-1 or greater, and keying her in exacta boxes first and second with the other two fillies. Trifecta players can use longshot returnee and surface lover (3-for-8) Samsincharge (20-1) in the money positions.
Running Totals: (149) 54-33-16. Total Dollar Return: $325.00 [based on win selections only]
Written by John Pricci