Pricci's Free Daily Feature Race Analysis

Five days per week and every racing day during the Saratoga meet, John Pricci will provide horse racing selections of that day's feature race. When the racing schedule dictates otherwise, there will be analysis from other major thoroughbred Tracks. Check back here 5 days a week for free horse racing selections.

In addition to his race analysis, John will provide commentary in a weekly "On the Line" column and daily blogs under the "Pricci's Morning Line" banner.

Sunday, February 24, 2008

An Offer You Can’t Refuse

This is getting a little silly, these New York features. Gary Contessa just has been so dominating, and in todays Busher for three-year-old fillies going a mile and a sixteenth, he will start half the field of six, including a two-ply entry and an uncoupled starter. Hell try for a sweep of the weekend stakes and today has himself to beat.

Deities Day and Love Co are coupled for the barn, due to common ownership interests. The stronger half of the favored entry (7-5) is Love Co. Shes really improved since going long as her Equiform figures will attest. She is paying for that recent win, asked to tote 122 pounds and Ramon Dominguez this afternoon.

The value on the early line is the uncoupled Contessa entrant, Sweet Vendetta (4-1), who moved way up with the addition of blinkers last out. In four lifetime starts, the first two on turf, she has never taken a backward step on figures.

Of greater significance, Sweet Vendetta showed good energy distribution in her main track debut then showed a more powerful late run in her last with the hood. The bad news is that she comes back quickly--especially for a filly--10 days; the good news is that she gets six pounds from her favored mate.

Taking Sweet Vendetta to win at 3-1 or greater and an exacta box with her coupled stablemates.

Running Totals: (179) 62-37-21. Total Dollar Return: $387.20 [win selections only]

Written by John Pricci

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Saturday, February 23, 2008

Swapping Racing Luck for Stage Luck

Quick: What do all members of the six-horse Rare Treat have in common? Right, none have a win at the 9-furlong distance. In fact, only one of the older fillies even has experience going this far.

What to do? The next best thing. The surface probably will be wet, damp at minimum. Then theres those who race well, or have inexperience, over the winter track. But there are too many in this very trappy contest, in which the four fastest females all figure very closely.

Aliysa (5-2) is 5-for-6 on wet tracks and first and second in two inner track starts, but shes coming back a little quick, 22 days. Runway Rosie (4-1) also does very well over wet and inner track surfaces but shes coming back even sooner and is a little short on the dams side of her pedigree. Then theres Wild Hoots (3-1) with her extremely fast figures going shorter at Laurel. A pair of double tops now changing venues in 28 days, a lot to ask from a filly.

Obviously, this leaves us with the favorite, Stage Luck (9-5), who has the most upside being second off a layoff, a newly gained four-year-old maturity, a strong determination to win and, most significantly, is 42 days fresh.

Not everyone will rush to the lead but theres a lot of speed signed on here, making this a riders race. Dont like those kind of race where happenstance; who gets the best ride, the best trip, wins. Of those, Aliysa seems like the prime suspect. But Stage Luck closed fiercely to win her last when all appeared lost. The lightly raced Albertrani trainee looks like she wants to be a racehorse.

Taking Stage Luck to win, at 2-1 or greater, and exacta and trifecta key boxes with Aliysa and Wild Hoots.

Running Totals: (178) 62-37-20. Total Dollar Return: $387.20 [win selections only]

Written by John Pricci

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Friday, February 22, 2008

Take the Afternoon Off

Aqueduct has canceled todays program due to a winter storm in the metropolitan area. Our free analysis resumes tomorrow with the featured Rare Treat for fillies and mares.

Written by John Pricci

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