Pricci's Free Daily Feature Race Analysis

Five days per week and every racing day during the Saratoga meet, John Pricci will provide horse racing selections of that day's feature race. When the racing schedule dictates otherwise, there will be analysis from other major thoroughbred Tracks. Check back here 5 days a week for free horse racing selections.

In addition to his race analysis, John will provide commentary in a weekly "On the Line" column and daily blogs under the "Pricci's Morning Line" banner.

Saturday, May 30, 2009

She’s Perfect for You

A stakes doubleheader at Churchill Downs this afternoon has produced two highly competitive races. Of the two, we’ll concentrate on the Grade 3 Dogwood Stakes for three-year-old fillies going a flat mile.

There’s no shortage of speed in this heat, most of it in the form of 5-2 favorite Luster. The Al Stall Jr. trained filly ran away and hid from an allowance field Derby day on a sloppy track beneath Garrett Gomez with the benefit of the inside part of the track favoring speed.

But on performance figures, she’s consistently fastest and Stall is 18 percent effective stretching to a route off two previous sprints but figures to be pressured early. Jamie Theriot takes the mount.

The primary beneficiary looks like Perfect For You (5-1) who’s shown a distinct preference for the Churchill surface. Second at this distance as a juvenile, earning a competitive figure for the age group, she’s now 2-for-2 since adding blinkers, including a win at the Downs. Jon Court takes the ride for Rusty Arnold.

Arnold has poor stats stretching out off two sprints but both those races were at 7 furlongs and her pedigree, by Giant’s Causeway from a Deputy Minister mare, is screaming for more ground. She gets that here.

But it's Tweeter (8-1) who's most interesting at a price. Wayne Lukas has made a habit of prepping horses in a Grade 1 then come back in the proper spot. How much of a chance do you think she had in the Kentucky Oaks?

I agree.

But prior to the Oaks, she never had taken a backward step. She breezed brilliantly over the track May 23 and, prior to Friday, Lukas was 4-for-8 at the meet, often using Miguel Mena, who takes the re-ride here.

Taking Tweeter to win at 6-1 or greater, exacta boxes with Perfect For You and Luster, and adding Affirmed Truth (8-1) to the trifecta mix.

Running Totals: (433) 130-89-58 Total Dollar Return: $880.30 [win selections only] (Friday's results not included)

Written by John Pricci


Friday, May 29, 2009

Taking a Turn

Today’s Belmont Park feature, a secondary allowances/optional claimer has drawn a small but talented field.

Turn Away (7-5) has not started in 238 days and I’m here to tell you that’s just fine. It’s not only because she wins fresh (broke her maiden at today’s 7 furlong trip in her debut, but she’s trained by Bobby Frankel, 24 percent efficient in that scenario, and stakes placed as a 2-year-old.

Are four races in two years a red flag? Of course, although Garrett Gomez doesn’t think so. He’s flying cross country to rider her in this $47,000 allowance race. You know it’s a prep for something bigger at this meeting and, if so, she needs to prove she’s up to that with a strong run here. Frankel’s not in the habit of embarrassing himself.

The danger like will come from Manitoba Miss (3-1). She’s really improved at 4, finishing a good third in a restricted stakes under similar conditions last time out and, of course, has recency in her corner. Trainer George Weaver is on the brink of a break-out season, saddling winners with 22 percent efficiency while showing a profit in the process.

But taking Turn Away to win at 6-5 or greater, an exacta box with Manitoba Miss, and using Whirling Agatha (8-1) in the trifecta mix..

Running Totals: (433) 130-89-58 Total Dollar Return: $880.30 [win selections only]

Written by John Pricci


Thursday, May 28, 2009

Hope to Catch This Fugitive

Today’s feature at Belmont Park is a secondary allowance/optional claimer for state-bred fillies and mares going a mile and it appears an excellent spot for favorite Karakorum Fugitive (7-5).

After having a somewhat promising winter, she tried stakes company in the Bouwerie Stakes and acquitted herself well, finishing third in a strongly run seven furlongs and earning a new pace top.

Going second time Lasix--first time at a route with Lasix--and reuniting with Jose Lezcano augurs well, as does the stretchout for Jimmy Jerkens, who’s 23 percent in that role. Add in a distance pedigree and you have a tough out.

The main danger is Olde Glamour (5-1) second in five of her last six appearance, with one win, but showed improved speed in last, also coming off a new pace top. Nice drawn outside beneath the aggressive Mike Luzzi can’t hurt.

Taking Karakorum Fugitive to win, no price restrictions, and an exacta box with Olde Glamour.

Running Totals: (432) 129-89-58 Total Dollar Return: $876.00 [win selections only]

Written by John Pricci


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