Pricci's Free Daily Feature Race Analysis
Whenever his daily work schedule permits, HorseRaceInsider executive editor John Pricci will analyze that day's feature race from a major thoroughbred-racing jurisdiction.
Saturday, February 20, 2010
Today’s Southwest a Real Gamble
We’re putting the carbon in for today’s rescheduled Southwest Stakes from Oaklawn Park, with a slight variation.
In today’s Grade 3, the first stop on the road to the Arkansas Derby, we’re going back to the choice we bet in the Smarty Jones on Jan. 18, Kitty’s Turn.
In case you didn’t see it, Luis Quinonez gave away all his position after breaking fairly well for the rail post at the same distance. Then entered the stretch angling out 7 wide and finished well too late for third.
Kitty’s Turn was supposed to get a switch to Robby Albarado on Monday but this being a big day at the Fair Grounds, Robby’s staying put and B G Murphy takes the mount. Which, if nothing else, assures a better price.
As the early line suggests, this is NOT an easy spot, not with all the classy types and faster rivals tied on.
The redraw actually helped Dublin, who had the extreme outside Monday, and punished early favorite Conveyance, who moves from inside to out. And Garrett Gomez is going to Florida today, instead. Martin Garcia will keep the speedy Dryfly in his sights. The pace figures to be strong.
We’re changing our approach to this two-turn mile. Dublin is now solidly in the mix, but another price shot was also aided by the redraw. That would be Cool Bullet, who moves a bit more inside and picks up a switch to Jon Court.
Taking Kitty’s Turn across-the-board at 12-1 or greater, and Cool Bullet across-the-board at 8-1 or greater. Also making an exacta box of Kitty’s Turn, Cool Bullet and Dublin.
Running Totals: (598) 187-121-82 Total Dollar Return: $1,298.70 [win selections only]
Written by John Pricci
Friday, February 19, 2010
Class on the Grass
You’ll get your money’s worth in today’s feature at Gulfstream Park, a turf marathon going 12 furlongs, and if early line odds hold, there’s value available with the second favorite, Silver Mountain (4-1), who rightfully should be the public choice.
Yes, we understand that Christopher Clement does extraordinary with horses returning from long layups, in fact he’s had a profitable career in that scenario. But aside from a worthy effort going 11 furlongs at Golden Gate last year, we don’t understand all the fuss about Ordination (3-1).
One could argue I suppose that Silver Mountain has a bit of a disappointing profile. But certainly not from a lack of trying and doing so in some salty company. His last in the G2 McKnight at Calder was better than it looks on paper, but need it be? Talking secondary allowances-optional claimers here.
He’s 3-for-5 in the money at this trip with one victory and picks up Jose Lezcano, riding in great form in recent weeks. The five year old has been working purposefully for Tom Proctor, including a recent bullet half mile over the course termed breezing.
Taking Silver Mountain to win at 5-2 or greater and keying him first and second in multiples with Adari (6-1), coming off a good figure effort on this course and making its second start for Steve Klesaris, a historically profitable scenario, and Auction Watch (6-1), returning from a layup for Jonathan Sheppard.
Running Totals: (597) 187-120-82 Total Dollar Return: $1,298.70 [win selections only]
Written by John Pricci
Thursday, February 18, 2010
Ready, Willing and Abel
Today’s feature in New York is a very competitive state-bred secondary allowances for Bit Apple sprinters.
The logical types are Fiddlers Patriot (3-1), a bounce-rebounded who reacted last out following a career best score. Both those efforts came over today’s surface, which he obviously prefers.
Another logical runner is King David J (4-1), who was very good to us last out and is right back in in three weeks looking to take advantage of his good form.
He loses jockey David Cohen to the Jacobson entry but Linda Rice taps a winter regular, C.C. Lopez, for the assignment, Lopez an ace with speed types, of course.
But we’re going to let price (15-1) and a hot barn rule here, a 4-year-old gelding who’s showing signs of recent development, gets in light at 113 pounds with apprentice Abel Lezcano and still might have a little upside.
While winning his last from in front, he has shown an ability to stalk and finish and he gets a good setup here with an outside draw and contentious speed signed on. We’re going for the gusto.
Taking Wicked Climb to win at 10-1 or greater and keying him first and second in exactas with his rivals here. Trifecta players can add the Jacobson entry to their mix.
Running Totals: (596) 187-120-82 Total Dollar Return: $1,298.70 [win selections only]
Written by John Pricci