Pricci's Free Daily Feature Race Analysis

Five days per week and every racing day during the Saratoga meet, John Pricci will provide horse racing selections of that day's feature race. When the racing schedule dictates otherwise, there will be analysis from other major thoroughbred Tracks. Check back here 5 days a week for free horse racing selections.

In addition to his race analysis, John will provide commentary in a weekly "On the Line" column and daily blogs under the "Pricci's Morning Line" banner.

Thursday, September 18, 2008

Beating Rice Could Be Very Nice

Will this be kind of a re-run of the Mechanicville in Saratoga where trainer Linda Rice’s horses finished 1-2-3-4? While not quite; she’s only entered three in today’s Jack Better Be Right overnight stakes for three-year-old state-bred fillies going six furlongs on Belmont’s inner turf course.

Two of Rice’s three are coupled and one of them, Meriwether Jessica (3-1), has an inside track here if, that is, she can handle Peter Pugh’s streaking Lost Without You (5-1). It’s very difficult choosing between the two, a battle of speed vs. conditioning.

Lost Without You is faster, almost significantly so. Never having taken a backward step on turf, her last two efforts were exceptional. Yes, she has done quite a bit of developing but not exactly to the extent that she’s won’t replicate recent efforts, which make her the most probable winner. And she’s had over six weeks to recover, has won on Belmont turf at this distance and attracts turf ace Johnny Velazquez.

Meriwether Jessica should have won her Saratoga finale. She simply never had winning position throughout the one mile two turner, her outside post responsible for some of that, and Eibar Coa got her going just a little too late. But the turn-back is not problematical here since her two-back race was a victory going three-quarters over this ground. With her speedy stablemates signed on and with a forward move projected, she is the expected value.

Taking any value offered on Lost Without You at 4-1 or more to win and a boxed exacta with Meriwether Jessica.

Running Totals: (276) 84-55-32. Total Dollar Return: $504.20 [win selections only]

Written by John Pricci


Wednesday, September 17, 2008

Offhand Remark? She’ll Romp

Today’s feature is a secondary allowances for state-bred turf fillies at a mile and a sixteenth on the Widener turf course. There are about five females that wouldn’t come as a big surprise in the 11-horse field. Of those five, however, we’re looking at the one with the most potential, even though there are more than a few who are faster on performance figures.

But you’d have to see a replay of the effort made by three-year-old Offhand Remark (5-1). You can count on limited figures the numbers of races won from an extreme outside post going a mile at Saratoga, especially without working out a trip where you can save ground for a significant portion of the race.

Not only did this filly not save ground but she was stalked the slow pace while four wide every step of the way and kicked home to win, racing a final quarter in less than 23 seconds. That takes talent no matter how slow the fractions. Here she finds a race light on early speed, has an inside draw in the bulky field and attracts Johnny V., this year the best turf rider in New York.

And while her figures are not as fast as her main rivals, she’s never taken a backward step in her career, either on dirt or turf, over which she‘s 2-for-2 including one over Belmont ground.

Taking Offhand Remark to win at 4-1 or greater and keying her first and second in trifectas with Blitzen Too (3-1) One In a Romp (6-1), Boxitup (5-1) and Absolute Heaven (4-1), plus an exacta box with Absolute Heaven.

Running Totals: (275) 84-55-32. Total Dollar Return: $504.20 [win selections only]

Written by John Pricci


Sunday, September 14, 2008

Taking Value the Logical Way

Today’s feature is the always entertaining Ashley T Cole for state-bred turf specialists going nine furlongs on the Belmont inner turf course. The two most likely for us are favorite Banrock (2-1) and improving late developer, Logic Way (8-1).

Banrock has proven consistently fastest on performance figures. He’s a multiple winner at the distance and over this course and is extremely sharp now, seeking his third straight after winning the West Point with authority in Saratoga last out. Kent Desormeaux, 3-for-3 aboard Banrock this year, take the re-ride.

Logic Way has improved this season after moving into the Rick Dutrow shed. His figures are forward looking and his development figures to continue, given incremental movement. He has enough tactical speed to play it off the break with a cozy inside draw
And if it weren’t for a nose defeat two starts back, Edgar Prado would also be 3-for-3 for the year on his mount. Weight will be a strong factor here, as Logic Way drops seven pounds to 114 while the favorite picks up two to 121.

Taking Logic Way to win at 5-1 or more, an exacta box with Banrock.

Running Totals: (275) 84-55-32. Total Dollar Return: $504.20 [win selections only]

Written by John Pricci


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