Pricci's Free Daily Feature Race Analysis

Five days per week and every racing day during the Saratoga meet, John Pricci will provide horse racing selections of that day's feature race. When the racing schedule dictates otherwise, there will be analysis from other major thoroughbred Tracks. Check back here 5 days a week for free horse racing selections.

In addition to his race analysis, John will provide commentary in a weekly "On the Line" column and daily blogs under the "Pricci's Morning Line" banner.

Thursday, November 08, 2007

Value Available in Big A Feature

Fresh, fairly fit and, hopefully, dangerous. Thanks for your patience, understanding and kind words re: our feature race analysis.

Today’s centerpiece is a non-winners of 5 other than… optional $75,000 claimer going a flat mile on the Aqueduct main track.

The early odds on the Gary Contessa entry likely will be a shorter at post time than the 3-1 offered on the early line, but at this moment it’s enough to know that the line-maker has the incorrect favorite.

We understand that Out Of Gwedda has good company lines, and that Explosive Heat (2-1) is sharp but either half of the entry could win this and in the event of a scratch, the price on the other should price proportionately.

Think Indian War Dance is a distance specialist with a liking for the surface? It’s not rocket science when the career box rolls a perfect seven at the distance and four wins from six tries over this ground. Throw in competitive speed figures and you would think the gelding can handle today’s class rise.

But I’d prefer if Contessa would choose Stolen Time as a stand-alone starter here. A profitable 20% effective with new acquisitions, Stolen Time has been working very well for his new connections, is well suited to prevailing conditions, and attracts Eddie Castro, aboard for this veteran’s last victory.

Owning tactical speed and kick, his outer position should enable Castro a good view from the catbird seat and allow him to get the jump on his rivals when ready. He is well suited to race shape dynamics here.

We’re looking for 2-1 on the entry to win if both start, 5-2 on one half should the stable-mate be scratched.

Running Totals: (126) 44-28-13. Total Dollar Return: $261.50 [based on win selections only]

Written by John Pricci

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Tuesday, October 23, 2007

A New York State of Mind: Not

Man does not live by New York analyses alone. Until after the Breeders' Cup, and the following weekend's Cal Cup event at Santa Anita, the New York Feature Race will be on hiatus. We will, however, provide a full blown analysis of the Race for Horse the Year, Saturday's Classic, and another Breeders' Cup event of wagering interest. Those analyses will appear in Saturday's edition of our Morning Line blog. Have a great Breeders' Cup, and Cal Cup weekend, too!

Written by John Pricci

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Sunday, October 21, 2007

King Cugat Brings Down Curtain on Belmont Fall Meet

The curtain comes down on the Belmont fall meet with the King Cugat for juvenile colts at one mile on the Widener turf course, listed soft yesterday but likely will be good this afternoon with no further precipitation.

The play is to defeat early-line 7-2 favorite Why Tonto, 2-for-2 on turf, but over firm ground from inside posts at the Meadowlands. The going will be less than firm today and the colt is drawn outside. Of course he can win, but at short odds we’ll lay him, not play him.

From the inside, out, we’re looking at Carry The Day (15-1), Moral Compass (4-1) and Grasberg (12-1).

Carry The Day has the most experience and has been toughened in a series of stakes. He broke his maiden on good ground on this course and is developing nicely, showing improved early speed on dirt, a competitive-figure effort on turf, then was hindered by a very slow pace and wide trip behind Breeders’ Cup-bound The Leopard last out. Is early line odds are way out of line given his form.

Moral Compass comes from the white hot Barclay Tagg shed and is, by definition, the fastest horse in the race. He owns terrific early speed, which he used in his recent victory. He worked a bullet in preparation for this and attracts the hot riding Norberto Arroyo Jr. He is likely to shake loose early in this spot, especially if his key race prior sprinting is any measure.

Grasberg is interesting. Following a maiden score, he ran better than odds when entered in the Pilgrim Stakes, a sign of confidence from the barn. He comes out of the same race as Carry The Day, in which he was third to The Leopard after making an impressive debut at Saratoga, coming from far back with a strong late rally. He, too, is a big price on the early line.

The scenario demands that we make an exacta box of these three contenders and will make a win bet on Carry The Day at 8-1 or greater, plus a saver half-wager to win on the other price shot, Grasberg.

Running Totals: (125) 44-28-13. Dollar Return: $261.50 [win selections only]

Written by John Pricci

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