Pricci's Free Daily Feature Race Analysis

Five days per week and every racing day during the Saratoga meet, John Pricci will provide horse racing selections of that day's feature race. When the racing schedule dictates otherwise, there will be analysis from other major thoroughbred Tracks. Check back here 5 days a week for free horse racing selections.

In addition to his race analysis, John will provide commentary in a weekly "On the Line" column and daily blogs under the "Pricci's Morning Line" banner.

Thursday, July 24, 2008

Don’t Like the Favorite? We’re Notonthesamepage

Today’s feature, the Grade 2 Sanford Stakes, traditionally is won by horses with winning experience in stakes race. Only one fills that bill here, Dagnabit (4-1), winner of the Tremont Stakes last time out. All others are recent maiden graduates.

But it’s also been a race where favorites have dominated, and Notonthesamepage (6-5) earned one of the fastest early season two-year-old figures we’ve ever seen. Repeat, ever. Accordingly, his pace figures give him an edge right from the start as well.

Desert Party (6-1) was a very impressive winner of his Arlington debut. The problem is translating the Polytrack form to here, although the barn is 2 for 7 under those conditions. And the chatter is the Darley folks are very high on the colt.

Bullion Cache (12-1) showed the kind of improvement for the Pletcher/Velazquez team that you want from a second time starter, namely maturity. His pedestrian performance figure should insure the early line odds remain high at post time.

Notonthesamepage is the most probable winner and we’ll key him over the other three in trifectas. Also, we’ll wager on the slower Dagnabit to win at 4-1 or greater, boxing him in the exacta with Notonthesamepage.

Running Totals: (238) 74-49-27. Total Dollar Return: $452.90 [win selections only]

Written by John Pricci


Wednesday, July 23, 2008

Getting Aggressive in Schuylerville

Today’s Schuylerville for two-year-old fillies at six furlongs is the first of 33 graded stakes that will be run at the Spa City track in the next six weeks.

Hel-lo Saratoga!

The history of this fixture is that speed from the inside usually rules and that Churchill Downs shippers have a high success rate coming in.

Hel-lo Ocean Colors (5-2)!

Of those that have started, she has the best performance figure by a significant margin. By Orientate out of the Derby heroine Winning Colors, have no idea how good she is or can be. The most likely winner.

But the speed of the speed just might be Collegiate (7-2). She set extremely fast early fractions to win her debut impressively and, like “Ocean” has had sufficient recovery time, especially important for a juvenile filly.

The interesting price play in here is Renda (15-1). After breaking her maiden by a short pole while on the lead, she tried a different tack after breaking a bit tardily in the Grade 3 Debutante. She attempted a middle move into a fast half-mile fraction then raced evenly thereafter. She has more experience, a trip at today’s distance and gets a favorable rider switch to Javier Castellano.

We’re so anxious to get started we’re making two win bets in today’s feature. Taking most probable winner Ocean Colors to win at 8-5 or greater, and price shot Renda to win at 12-1 or more. Price points are very important here. Also, making exacta and trifecta boxes using all three, an extra ticket in the exacta pool.

Running Totals: (237) 74-49-27. Total Dollar Return: $452.90 [win selections only]

Written by John Pricci


Sunday, July 20, 2008

Bullish on Market Psychology

The Belmont Park summer gate-away stakes is the Evan Shipman for state-breds 3 & up at a mile an a sixteenth. Can Market Psychology (5-2) go the distance? If he can, he’s long gone early and holding them safe late. Everyone knows he’s very fast. And he won at 7 and 7-½ furlongs, so another furlong should be do-able. Eibar Coa and an outside post. Coa needs to ride conservatively aggressive.

Sorry, lately I’ve been watching too many political talk shows.

Stud Muffin (3-1) is top-py, but he’s a new horse at four and he’s had sufficient rest. He will get a fast pace, but maybe too fast. He could get bottomed out. I should await Saratoga before backing Naughty New Yorker (2-1) again, but he’s proven classy at this level and runs good performance figures consistently. And it’s Pat Kelly’s time of year.

Taking Market Psychology at early line odds or better, keying in exactas and trifectas first and second with the other two.

In case you haven’t noticed, we've had two server episodes in the last month. Our apologies for the inconvenience. We bravely predicted that Music Note would win the CCAO, but obviously can’t pad our win percentage. The way we’ve been going, any win would have been welcome. So the running totals don’t reflect Saturday play.

Running Totals: (237) 74-49-27. Total Dollar Return: $452.90 [win selections only]

Written by John Pricci


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