Pricci's Free Daily Feature Race Analysis

Whenever his daily work schedule permits, HorseRaceInsider executive editor John Pricci will analyze that day's feature race from a major thoroughbred-racing jurisdiction.

Thursday, July 29, 2010

Back to Spa Is Best Case Scenario

Choice of two features today--a couple of $70,000 overnighters--and we opted for the race which, despite the shorter field, offers a great opportunity for value.

Not that in today’s 4th race, the Lucy Scribner for fillies and mares sprinting 7 furlongs, doesn’t have a worthy favorite in Devil By Design (2-1), who was eliminated by a rough start in the G3 Bed o’ Roses but now returns to her winning overnight level.

Making her thirds start off a layoff for Team Mott/Desormeaux, the filly is 1-2 at the Spa and 3-4 at the distance.

An interesting filly Perfect for You (8-1), coming out of a fast-paced sprint and now stretches out to her best distance with a switch to Garrett Gomez. She’s 3-18 lifetime in her career--all at 7 furlongs.

But the price filly that’s most intriguing here is Worstcasescenario (12-1), returning to the scene of her career best victory, winning the G2 Adirondack by open lengths. She’s been toughened in graded stakes since but now finds a winning level, reuniting with Alan Garcia, who was aboard for both lifetime victories.

Taking Worstcasescenario to win at 6-1 or greater, keying her first and second in exactas with her main rivals here.

Running Totals: (692) 222-141-96 Total Dollar Return: $1,551.10 [win selections only]

Written by John Pricci


Tuesday, July 27, 2010

From Canada to Lake George

If this is not the best edition of the G2 Lake George ever run, it’s certainly in the conversation. It’s a very deep, very contentious field that might just be laden with future grass stars. We find four of these fillies extremely interesting:

House Of Grace (8-1), pointed toward this and a course winner; Neon Light (9-2), a Group-winning German invader from winning connections; Dynazapper (12-1), a recent tough-tripper now turning back to her best distance, and Bay To Bay (4-1), compromised by a slow pace at Monmouth and working brilliantly for a top ship-in barn.

While all have merit, Bay To Bay looms the most probable winner. As a Grade 3 winner with multiple placings at that level, she’s a proven commodity that keeps improving. She had little chance vs. a soft pace from a wide slip at Monmouth and now reunites with Robby Albarado, 1-for-1 aboard the filly.

Her :48 3/5 work, 15th fastest of 107 three-year-old workers that week at her Woodbine base, is set to roll for a barn that’s a profitable 30% effective with its shippers. There’s no shortage of speed in this matchup and she’ll be rolling late.

Taking Bay To Bay to win at 4-1 or greater and keying her first and second in the multiples with her three rivals listed above.

Running Totals: (691) 222-141-96 Total Dollar Return: $1,551.10 [win selections only] {Sunday and Monday selections were unavailable due to technical difficulties}

Written by John Pricci


New York State of Mind

Today’s Saratoga feature is the Evan Shipman for older state-breds going nine furlongs and these are some tough and talented hard hitters. No one would argue that early favorites Giant Moon (5-2) and Icabad Crane (3-1) has some class about them, but it’s the veteran Naughty New Yorker (6-1) that’s most interesting here.

In his Belmont finale, he had his early speed sharpened in a good-paced quickly run 6-½ furlongs and today he finds himself back on his favorite course (three wins) and optimal distance, given that some of his best performance figures have been earned at nine furlongs. He’s worked sharply for this and these connections, which have had a winner at the meet, always point toward Saratoga.

Taking Naughty New Yorker to win at 4-1 or greater, boxing him first and second with the two favorites, and adding Mighty Morris (4-1) to the trifecta mix.

Running Totals: (691) 222-141-96 Total Dollar Return: $1,551.10 [win selections only] {Sunday results not included}

Written by John Pricci


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