Pricci's Free Daily Feature Race Analysis

Five days per week and every racing day during the Saratoga meet, John Pricci will provide horse racing selections of that day's feature race. When the racing schedule dictates otherwise, there will be analysis from other major thoroughbred Tracks. Check back here 5 days a week for free horse racing selections.

In addition to his race analysis, John will provide commentary in a weekly "On the Line" column and daily blogs under the "Pricci's Morning Line" banner.

Saturday, December 27, 2008

Feeling Lucky?

Following a lengthy holiday break, the first Saturday feature is a graded stakes, the always competitive Gravesend, a Grade 3, for sprinters 3 & up going six furlongs on the inner, winter track. The three of interest here are expected post time favorite Fabulous Strike (9-5), the freshened Lucky Island (5-2), and the ship-in price play Night Stand (20-1), all duking it out on the inside track.

Fabulous Strike is the proven class, a G1 winner of 11 of 18 lifetime starts and weight carrier. By definition the fastest horse on performance figures, his 126-pound highweight assignment actually represents a drop of 10 pounds, carrying 136 successfully in the Fall Highweight last out, Ramon Dominguez riding him like he owns him. Strike has a remarkable turn of foot, runs from anywhere on the racetrack and is a true road warrior. Good thing, as this will be his winter track debut.

Lucky Island is greatly suited by today’s race shape as he’s a tactical stalker with kick in a race loaded with speed. As a South American four-year-old, he still benefits from developmental upside, runs well when fresh and attracts regular partner Alan Garcia, completing a career season. Kiaran McLaughlin is profitable with horses returning from extended layoffs and classes up nicely with multiple graded scores.

Compelled to take the fresh, likely good-tripper Lucky Island at 3-1 or greater, boxing him in the exacta with Fabulous Strike, and adding the Philly Park speedster returning to his best distance for a 24 percent profitably efficient ship-in outfit.

Running Totals: (332) 100-69-44. Total Dollar Return: $699.30 [win selections only]

Written by John Pricci


Friday, December 26, 2008

Development Plus Trip Equals Repeat Win

We’ll stay out of town one more day and go back to the Bayou for a secondary allowances/optional claimer on the turf at a mile and a sixteenth. It has drawn a limit field and offers value potential in the sharp Woodbourne (6-1), who’s trying to make it two straight for the Mark Casse/Jesse Campbell team. The main danger is from the white hot Asmussen/Bridgmohan connections of Cobrador (4-1).

Woodbourne is an improving 4-year-old, showing the kind of laudably incremental improvement that's indicative of further development. It’s not insignificant that his latest performance figure, a lifetime best when going long, came over this course, at this distance. His tactical speed and inside draw should ensure another favorable trip and a repeat of his latest effort. Casse traditionally does well at this meeting and five weeks is sufficient recovery time for his runner.

Cobrador, meanwhile, is as fast as the choice, and there are those hot connections. But there is the matter of a fairly significant class rise and an outside position that virtually assures a wide trip into the first turn. If he proves best, he’ll need to do it the hard way.

But we're taking Woodbourne to win at 5-1 or greater, an exacta box with Cobrador, and in all trifecta money positions with Gangbuster (6-1), Cape San Blas (5-1) and Demeteor (9-2).

Running Totals: (332) 100-69-44. Total Dollar Return: $699.30 [win selections only]

Written by John Pricci


Sunday, December 21, 2008

Neon Lights Are Bright Everywhere

With Tampa dark until mid-week, we’ll return to NOLA for today’s feature from the Fair Grounds, a non-winners of 4 other-than allowances/optional claimer. It has drawn an extremely competitive field of eight crack sprinters going three-quarters with lots of questions.

There are returnees from layups, move-ups, drop-downs, most all from leading barn. In fact, Tom Amoss has two of the eight, uncoupled, and we happen to prefer the longer of the two, Truelyonbroadway, 6-1 on the early line.

No guesswork involved here. He’s making his third start off a layup, has had two strong five-furlong moves from his last start, and it just happens that Mr. Amoss is a profitable 31 percent efficient in this third-off-a-layoff scenario.

Jockey James Graham has been doing excellent work for Amoss recently and so they’ll try to continue that roll here. Nicely drawn outside, his style fit’s the race shape suitably and he loves this surface, the scene of his best two lifetime performance figures.

However, we don’t have any suitable ideas for multiple-pool wagers; actually we have too many.

Taking Truelyonbroadway to win and place at 4-1 or greater.

Running Totals: (331) 100-69-44. Total Dollar Return: $699.30 [win selections only]

Written by John Pricci


Page 592 of 723 pages « FirstP  <  590 591 592 593 594 >  Last »