Pricci's Free Daily Feature Race Analysis

Five days per week and every racing day during the Saratoga meet, John Pricci will provide horse racing selections of that day's feature race. When the racing schedule dictates otherwise, there will be analysis from other major thoroughbred Tracks. Check back here 5 days a week for free horse racing selections.

In addition to his race analysis, John will provide commentary in a weekly "On the Line" column and daily blogs under the "Pricci's Morning Line" banner.

Tuesday, January 01, 2008

Taking Control of the Interborough

Not an exciting way to start the new year, although any start in New York these days is welcome. The Interborough at six furlongs has drawn only five fillies for three-year-olds and up but, on form, it looks like a match race between the two favorites: Control Room (8-5) and Oprah Winney (6-5).

The favorite probably should have won her latest, but settled for third in the Garland of Roses following a very poor start. Prior to that, she set a too-fast pace in the Monmouth Park slop in the Breeders Cup. Today, the switch to the outside post will suit her style better and picking up Ramon Dominguez wont hurt. Shes fast, consistent, likes this surface and has a versatile style.

But Control Room has a bit more upside. A newly turned four-year-old, shes still developing and had something in reserve from a performance-figure perspective when she defeated the favorite in her last. Trainer Michael Trombetta has been on a tear with his New York shippers, especially this one, 2-for-2 when she steps foot on the winter track. She has tactical speed and an inside post, and will be partnered by Julian Pimentel, whos been riding at 29 % for this barn recently.

Were taking Control Room to repeat at 7-5 or more and an exacta box with Oprah Winney.

Running Totals: (153) 55-33-16. Total Dollar Return: $333.10 [win selections only]

Written by John Pricci

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Sunday, December 30, 2007

Run With the Value

Todays Alex M Robb for state-breds going a mile and a sixteenth for 3-year-olds and up is a good one, and a good betting race, too. The strength is all outside in this full field, from the 7 post, out; Indian Hawke (5-2), Run With the Lark (6-1), Who What Win (5-1) and Naughty New Yorker (3-1).

Indian Hawke is co-fastest on performance figures, has excellent tactical speed and is extremely sharp right now for Tony Dutrow and Alan Garcia, a tandem thats 44 % effective when they hook up. Add the fact that the streaking speedster loves the surface and you know he will be a tough out.

When last seen, Naughty New Yorker was finishing third in the Grade 1 Cigar mile. Guess you might say he rates a class edge vs. his native New Yorkers. But this is a pretty salty group, hes drawn the extreme outside and that first turn comes up pretty quickly. Furthermore hes picking up 7 pounds and likes the winter surface. Jean-Luc Samyn gets along with him very well.

Who What Win earned an excellent figure over this surface last season, comes up to this in excellent form and attracts Ramon Dominguez. But what sets him apart from most of the others is the fact hes never finished worse than second in 10 starts on this surface, including four wins. Hes also a four-time winner at the distance.

Run With the Lark has never raced in better form and hails from a barn that has had a resurgent season, and will end the year with a flat-bet profit. Thats what happens when starters outrun their odds. With lots of speed signed on, the Rick Schosberg runner fits the race shape very well and Norberto Arroyo fits him extremely well. Off all the major contenders, he is the one most likely to fall through the wagering cracks.

Taking the value on Run With the Lark at 6-1 or greater, and keying him first and second in exactas with his three main rivals, and in all money positions in the trifecta.

Running Totals: (152) 55-33-16. Total Dollar Return: $333.10 [win selections only]

Written by John Pricci

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Saturday, December 29, 2007

Taking a Horse for Course and the Longer Dutrow

Todays Grade 3 Gravesend has attracted six fast sprinters, almost all of them capable of winning this contentious feature for three-year-olds and up. Well concentrate on three, from the inside, out: Pavo (7-2), P. Kerney (6-1) and City Attraction (2-1).

Weve been waiting for Pavo to race back for two reasons: Hell be making his first start off Tony Dutrows claim, a 27 % scenario, and for him to get back on his favorite surface. And we know this how? Because three of his four lifetime wins have come on this ground and his fastest performance figure also came over this surface. Add the pole, Ramon Dominguez and lots of early gas to suit his late kick and you have a plausible situation for victory.

P. Kerney is racing in excellent form and offers good value if anywhere near early line odds at off time. He owns an excellent blend of speed and stamina, a rare gift even at this level, has been working bullets at his Laurel base, and trainer Mike Trombetta is profitable when his runners make their second start off a layup. Since Trombettas claim, hes won three of five, all beneath Travis Dunkelberger, who takes the jaunt up I-95 for the mount.

City Attraction is the logical early favorite. Reserved by Rick Dutrow is favor of this spot, his performance figures are consistently faster than most of his rivals here, he owns tactical speed, and seems to do his best running outside rivals. Drawing post six in a small field could not suit his talents any better. Dutrow owns a career flat-bet profit in graded stakes. Like we said, its a beauty.

Taking surface loving Pavo to win at 3-1 or greater and keying him first and second in exactas with his two main rivals here. Trifecta players can add Joey P. to their mix in money positions.

Running Totals: (151) 55-33-16. Total Dollar Return: $333.10 [win selections only] {Friday results not included}

Written by John Pricci

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