Pricci's Free Daily Feature Race Analysis
Five days per week and every racing day during the Saratoga meet, John Pricci will provide horse racing selections of that day's feature race. When the racing schedule dictates otherwise, there will be analysis from other major thoroughbred Tracks
. Check back here 5 days a week for free horse racing selections.
In addition to his race analysis, John will provide commentary in a weekly "On the Line"
column and daily blogs under the "Pricci's Morning Line"
Thursday, August 14, 2008
Take Me To Your Leader
Another graded feature for the babies, this one for the boys, the G2 Saratoga Special at 6-½ furlongs. Like yesterday’s sister stakes, the Adirondack, the Special poses similar problems: Horses shipping from everywhere, fast ones, slow ones, lightly raced and experienced ones, most from high profile outfits. We’ll concentrate on two.
Proud Jefe (8-1) comes from the always potent Tom Amoss shed. He is experienced with three starts, has won over two different surfaces and his performance figures look explosive. Nicely drawn inside with tactical speed and kick, and picking up Edgar Prado, are all good things. His early line odds are quite generous.
Lyin’ Heart (3-1) on the other hand is much faster, also appears poised for a forward move, has the late kick suited to a race loaded with early gas and Steve Asmussen and Shaun Bridgmohan are on some kind of roll. However, he seems to suffer from gate issues, which could get you beat at any time. The good news is that he is drawn outside so that a slow beginning wouldn’t necessarily put him in the same kind of jackpot.
We are taking whatever value is offered on the slower, albeit forward looking, Proud Jefe, at 5-1 or greater, and exacta and trifecta key boxes with Lyin’ Heart and fast-figure Break Water Edison (4-1).
Running Totals: (252) 78-51-29 Total Dollar Return: $472.50 [win selections only]
Written by John Pricci
Wednesday, August 13, 2008
From Garden to Finanacial District
Finally, again, a race with a name on it that’s also graded, the G2 Adirondack for juvenile fillies going 6-½ furlongs, in which five of the eight fillies are coming off impressive victories of varying degrees. Our preference is for early line second favorite, Garden District (3-1).
A winner of two of three lifetime starts, her only defeat was to the colt Run Away and Hide in a Churchill Downs G3. Not only did she win the G3 Debutante, it gave her an experience advantage over most of her rivals, but she showed an ability to chase from close range and out-finish the competition despite a stumbling start.
Given the amount of speed signed on here, that versatility becomes paramount. Her outside position gives leading rider Johnny Velazquez options, as he can dictate or stalk the pace, and Todd Pletcher, led by his two-year-olds, is back, the leading trainer having won 10 starts at the meet.
Taking Garden District to win at 5-1 or greater, keying her first and second in exacta and trifectas with undefeated Bold Union (5-2) and talented New York-bred Doremifasollatido.
Running Totals: (251) 78-51-29. Total Dollar Return: $472.50 [win selections only]
Written by John Pricci
Monday, August 11, 2008
Making a Winning Point
For a stakes without a name attached--a non-winners of 3 other than…optional claiming--it has drawn its share of fillies that have run, and run well, in races with names of them. Of the six entered, we’ll concentrate on two: Somethingtotalkabt (10-1) and Winning Point (8-5).
Somethingtotalkabt comes off a layup for Wally Dollase, very efficient with limited Spa starters year after year. In a 12-race career, she’s had but three starts on dirt and won one--at today’s distance--at Churchill Downs beneath Julien Leparoux. After a failed attempt down the hill in a Cal-bred turf sprint stakes at Santa Anita, she returns East, returns to winning conditions and reunites with Leparoux. She’s been in steady training for over two months in preparation for her return.
Winning Point, second in the G2 Comely, Black-Eyed Susan and Delaware Oaks last year, she returned in a paceless mile race at Belmont Park and lost the momentum battle, checking in second. She certainly appeared to need the effort, now turns back to what might be her optimal distance and is nicely drawn outside the speed; a perfect stalking trip looms.
Must take Winning Point to win, no price restrictions, and exacta key boxes with Somethingtotalkabt and Boca Grande.
Running Totals: (250) 78-51-29. Total Dollar Return: $472.50 [win selections only]
Written by John Pricci