Pricci's Free Daily Feature Race Analysis

Whenever his daily work schedule permits, HorseRaceInsider executive editor John Pricci will analyze that day's feature race from a major thoroughbred-racing jurisdiction.

Wednesday, June 09, 2010

Uphold the Law

It might not be the hardest five-horse race ever, but it’s close. There are 6-½ furlong specialists, in form horses with recency, and fast returnees that can win this optional three-other than allowances for older sprinters.

And so we’ll take the best specialist, a surface lover, a horse that earned her best lifetime figure at this trip, one that’s working well for his return from the layoff, is well posted, attracts one of the hottest riders in New York and is 10-1 on the early line.

Primarily a stretch running sprinter, his freshness could have him closer to the pace than usual. Taking Law Enforcement to win and place at 8-1 or greater.

Running Totals: (666) 210-134-94 Total Dollar Return: $1,463.50 [win selections only]

Written by John Pricci


Tuesday, June 08, 2010

Cross the Delaware with Laus Dao

Today’s feature at Delaware Park is a secondary allowances-optional claiming going a mile and 70 yards for three year olds and up. We’re taking the old tack: “The place you lose it is the place you get it back.”

We picked Laus Dao (9-2) on May 11 returning from a layup and he raced as if short of condition. That won’t be the case here. With that effort under his girth and two recent works, he figures to revert to the form that enabled him to win the Count Fleet earlier this year.

The mini-turnback to a winning distance and in at a feathery 112 pounds vs. his elders, the new-pace-top runner projects for a stalking trip from his outer position in this seven horse field, pouncing on the leaders when Jeremy Rose cuts him loose.

Taking Laus Dao to win at 3-1 or greater and keying him first and second in trifectas with returning Strikewhileitshot (3-1), course lover Knight In Armour (12-1) and It’s Never To Late (2-1) from the white connections of Peter Walder and Jose Valdivia.

Running Totals: (665) 209-134-94 Total Dollar Return: $1,458.30 [win selections only]

{There is established precedent for this scenario at HRI: We made two win selections in the Belmont Stakes Saturday, and have treated it as a $2 loss on top selection Ice Box and a winning $1 bet on “saver wager” Drosselmeyer}.

Written by John Pricci


Saturday, June 05, 2010

“Wise Guy” Handicapping, Level Two

When the moment came to put a #1 next to one of a dozen Belmont Stakes horses tomorrow, I made a decision to take the horse that accomplished the most, did it in racehorse time, and rates to possibly move forward based on his performance-figure pattern. That horse is Ice Box.

Further, with all the wise guys looking to beat him because of his deep closing style, we think there is a chance to get value. If you’re getting, say, 3-1 on a horse whose chances of winning are 1 in 3, or 2-1 in parimutuel speak, that’s getting value.

There are a number of price shots who are intriguing, so using the steadiest performer as a key in the multiples pools in several positions, there's a possibility for a good payday. As such, we’re making multiple wagers, after taking Ice Box to win at 3-1 or greater.

Also, making a saver wager on the strong working price shot, Drosselmeyer, at 12-1 or greater.

Of course, would not have had to worry about any of this had Gabriel's Hill won the Brooklyn bob at the wire. It happens, but at the price, it hurt .

Going for Belmont gusto, we're keying Ice Box first and second in trifectas with Uptowncharlybrown, Fly Down, Drosselmeyer, Game On Dude, Stately Victor and First Dude.

For those with money left who insist on a superfecta play, add the steadily improving Stay Put and seasoned Make Music For Me to the mix.

Enjoy Belmont day, a remarkable card with four Grade 1 events and two Grade 2s, easily the best supporting card of the Triple Crown series.

Running Totals: (663) 208-134-94 Total Dollar Return: $1,444.30 [win selections only]

Written by John Pricci


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