Pricci's Free Daily Feature Race Analysis

Whenever his daily work schedule permits, HorseRaceInsider executive editor John Pricci will analyze that day's feature race from a major thoroughbred-racing jurisdiction.



Thursday, May 25, 2017


Taking One Last Shot at Belmont


If the weather gods are kind the rain will keep up and today's Belmont feature won't have to be rescheduled to the main track. If it does, however, Shug's Tejana (3-5) looms a standout and is the selection of record.

But we'd like it to remain on turf as it's a much better betting proposition, even if the very classy favorite, Swiss Ranger (6-5), were to win. But there are several who are more interesting.

Of those, One Last Shot (5-1) has the best chance.

Racing in tough luck of late, she owns a forward pattern on the TG scale and her figures are right there with the fastest members of this field.

She has tactical speed, can kick, and a nice conditioning edge with a recent 7-furlong try over the course in which she finished second after getting roughed up a bit at headstretch. Nicely drawn toward the outside with Johnny, she suits today's dynamics nicely.

Taking One Last Shot to win at 3-1 or greater and key-boxing exactas with the favorite and returnee Secret Paradise (6-1), adding price shots Lamontagne (10-1) and Rumble Doll (15-1) to the super-exotics mix.

*****

Number of Selections since 2007: 2299

Number of Win and Place Finishes: 692-455

Amount Wagered: $4,598 [$2 to win only]

Total Dollar Return on Investment: $4,713.30

Exacta Finishes All Selections since 2007: .498%

Profit to Date:
$115.30

Written by John Pricci



 
 

Saturday, May 20, 2017


Another Jewel for the Crown?


As if everyone didn't know, there's a major difference between picking a winner and betting your money.

As for Always Dreaming, if the stress of two monumental efforts don't get to him today--and his training indicates they haven't--then the competition won't get to him either, and there will be a chance at a second Triple Crown winner this decade.

But if he does react to those races, and Classic Empire match-races him right out of the gate and a speed duel develops, a late runner will win the Preakness.

For the record, I'm taking Always Dreaming to win and his finish will determine the daily running totals published in the next FRA post.

As for straight betting, post time odds will dictate and, win or lose, Always Dreaming figures to be a certain underlay at odds on.

While I rarely do these, I'm planning to bet two horses to win, price dependent, of course.

Cloud Computing (12-1) is not only sitting on a career best race but he'll be sitting in the pocket, too, ready to pounce when Javier gives him his cue.

But I have not given up on my Derby selection, Gunnevera (15-1), who will take some money due to the presence of Money Mike Smith but likely not enough to dissuade me. As stated, I have not given up but most other handicappers have and that should assure value.

I stand by the view he raced needlessly wide in Always Dreaming's Florida Derby and should have finished closer. And I was fooled by the surface at Churchill on Downs Derby day. Generally, it's a track that becomes tiring after a two-day soaking, but not this year.

The inside runners held sway most of the day with nary a winner coming from the clouds. Not only was the track against him but so was another wide trip. While he likes wet racetracks, he couldn't handle a wet surface that was more slippery than tiring.

Money Mike play it off the break and will know what to do and if the Gunnevera that won the Fountain of Youth shows up Saturday, Alex Sano will be able to pay for that college education he's getting.

I intend to play both horses to win, a ratio of 3 to 2, price dependent. I may refrain from betting two horses if one fails to reach my price point. I need 8-1 to bet Cloud Computing to win; I need 12-1 to bet Gunnevera.

As for the multiple pools, each will be in the mix with the logical suspects, extra tickets with Always Dreaming on top. We're assuming a fast track as this is posted.

And so we'll see what the day gives us and wager accordingly. If either horse finishes first, it will be crab cakes for all my friends.

Happy Preakness everyone!

*****

Number of Selections since 2007: 2297

Number of Win and Place Finishes: 692-455

Amount Wagered: $4,594 [$2 to win only]

Total Dollar Return on Investment: $4,713.30

Exacta Finishes All Selections since 2007: .498%

Profit to Date:
$119.30 {Friday selection not included}

Written by John Pricci



 
 

Friday, May 19, 2017


Classics Weekend Redux at Pimlico?


The Grade 2 Black-Eyed Susan is as open a race as you'll see all weekend. On first pass, we left seven fillies open. So we looked again, and found eight!

After watching Moana (4-1) breeze a half-mile at Pimlico, we loved the way she skipped over the surface early this week and Todd Pltcher's handling of this filly is, to us, reminiscent of how he brought Always Dreaming along to his major tests. That seemed to work OK.

And so we're willing to test this theory and will take Moana to win at 3-1 or greater, and key-box exactas with promising local Shimmering Aspen (9-2) and sharp working Full House (12-1), adding Grade 1 winning Dancing Rags and class-dropping Summer Luck (5-1) to the super-exotics mix

Number of Selections since 2007: 2297

Number of Win and Place Finishes: 692-455

Amount Wagered: $4,594 [$2 to win only]

Total Dollar Return on Investment: $4,713.30

Exacta Finishes All Selections since 2007: .498%

Profit to Date:
$119.30

Written by John Pricci



 
 

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