Pricci's Free Daily Feature Race Analysis

Whenever his daily work schedule permits, HorseRaceInsider executive editor John Pricci will analyze that day's feature race from a major thoroughbred-racing jurisdiction.

Thursday, October 15, 2009

This Horse Can Fly

There’s not even a nominal feature to begin the Belmont Park. The choice is one of two state-bred races, one featuring a suspicious dropdown that looks like it can’t lose and is a short price or a 7-furlong turf sprint that’s more competitive. We’ll opt for the latter.

Horses of interest of Woodrunner (4-1), who’s well posted, fit’s the race shape nicely but, more often than not, finishes one-paced. Another is Joey’s Chance (5-1), coming off a delayed pace top and returning to his favorite surface for a barn that recently has come alive.

But it is Pegasus Tommy D. (7-2) that has the most upside. A three-year-old vs. elders here, his lone win came at this distance, also fits the shape of the race nicely, switches to Ramon Dominguez and goes first-time for trainer Rick Dutrow, 31 percent with new acquisitions and white hot of late.

Taking Pegasus Tommy D. to win at 5-2 or greater and keying him first and second in exotics with his rivals here.

Running Totals: (522) 157-106-75 Total Dollar Return: $1,081.30 [win selections only]

Written by John Pricci


Monday, October 12, 2009

Bet Any Denomination You’d Like

Today’s holiday feature at Belmont Park is the Pebbles for three-year-old fillies going one mile on the Widener turf. We would be shocked in the winner didn’t come from among Maram (5-2). Denomination (3-1) and Miss Catalyst (5-1).

Of those, we believe Denomination has the most upside. Going postward first time for Christophe Clement, who’s adding first-Lasix and first-Dominguez, this sophomore was beaten 4-½ lengths by Dynaforce in the Beverley D. Meeting older mares in early August is no small chore.

Further, there’s a lack of pace in this race and it’s interesting to note that she raced on the lead a couple of times in Europe before shipping stateside. Of course, setting the pace on turf Over There is very much anti-profile. Clement was quoted as saying he’s satisfied with her training. I can only tell you that if he weren’t satisfied, she’d be in the barn (see Caribbean Sunset on the JC Gold Cup undercard).

Taking Denomination to win at 5-2 or greater and keying her first and second in exotics with her two rivals here.

Running Totals: (521) 157-106-75 Total Dollar Return: $1,081.30 [win selections only]

Written by John Pricci


Sunday, October 11, 2009

Credentials Trump Potential

The Grade 2 Jerome is an interesting case. Girolamo (8-5) clearly has the most upside, is coming off a favorable Equiform pattern, is working brilliantly, especially his most recent move, and Saeed bin Suroor is a remarkable 47 percent efficient with repeaters.

At present, Kensei (7-5) is the most accomplished. He’s won two Grade 2s this year, including the Dwyer on this track under a similar scenario, a one-turn elongated sprint. He failed to handle mud in the Travers but is now six weeks fresh and drops a notch here.

But the crowd loves potential and will make Girolamo go favorite. They may well be right, but that’s not the way to bet.

Taking Kensei to win, no price restriction, and a quinella with Girolamo.

Running Totals: (521) 156-106-74 Total Dollar Return: $1,081.30 [win selections only]

Written by John Pricci


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