Pricci's Free Daily Feature Race Analysis

Five days per week and every racing day during the Saratoga meet, John Pricci will provide horse racing selections of that day's feature race. When the racing schedule dictates otherwise, there will be analysis from other major thoroughbred Tracks. Check back here 5 days a week for free horse racing selections.

In addition to his race analysis, John will provide commentary in a weekly "On the Line" column and daily blogs under the "Pricci's Morning Line" banner.

Saturday, January 10, 2009

Taking Value in Contentious Busanda

Today’s Busanda Stakes for three-year-old fillies at a mile and 70 yards is an interesting affair in that much is to be learned about these lightly campaigned young ladies. Is Flashing (3-1) as good as her debut run, pedigree and white hot connections suggests?

What about the undefeated Fitz Just Right (8-1), going in the right direction and hailing from top connections serious enough to send her over to Aqueduct from her new Belmont Park base for a bullet workout over today’s track?

How about Missunitednations (8-1), coming from the same race as the 2-for-2 Fitz Just Right and from a barn that specializes in these non-graded events and showed a profit for all of last year? Or Southern Charmer (7-2), who appears to be sitting on a big effort from the pole position.

But is one sprint race enough of a career for Flashing to win this move up in class and distance? Why was Fitz Just Right campaigned out of town instead of staying at home for local connections? And will the outside draw and pace scenario all but eliminate Missunitednations from win consideration? Good questions all.

That's why Pumpkin Shell (6-1) is an interesting way to go. She developing very well, coming off two favorable Equiform patterns despite intervening turf races. She, too, is well positioned, and appears eligibility to slip between the parimutuel cracks in this contentious heat providing, of course, that Flashing isn't a special filly, which she just might be.

Taking Pumpkin Shell to win at 8-1 or greater, and exacta box with Flashing, and keying her first and second in trifectas with her rivals mentioned here.

Running Totals: (341) 102-70-46. Total Dollar Return: $705.10 [win selections only]

Written by John Pricci


Friday, January 09, 2009

Weathering the Storm

It won’t be as easy as it looks on paper, but with two sprint-speed types stretching out to one mile on the winter track likely to engage in a duel in today’s Plankton Stakes for fillies and mares, it looks like an excellent set-up for early line favorite Weathered (9-5).

The speed fillies are Miss Blue Tye Dye (4-1), shipping up extremely sharp from Philly Park, and Ididntmeantoo (2-1), much improved since shipping East into Rick Dutrow’s barn. Either of these fillies would be more than capable of leading these throughout if not for the presence of the other. A scratch of either would make the other quite formidable.

Barring that, Weathered is a filly with tactical speed and kick, has good form over the surface and an excellent record at the trip. Further she has good and consistent performance figures, improved pace figures, and the position conscious Mike Luzzi is likely to use his filly’s tactical speed to ensure a good trip. Hopefully, too, the Dutrow filly will attract heavy play so that Weathered will be bettable at post time.

Taking Weathered to win at 3-2 or greater and keying her first and second in trifectas with her rivals here, and first in exactas.

Running Totals: (340) 102-70-45. Total Dollar Return: $705.10 [win selections only]

Written by John Pricci


Thursday, January 08, 2009

A Pot of Gold at the End of the Turnpike?

More state-breds on tap for today’s feature, a preliminary allowances for fillies and mares around two turns on the Aqueduct winter track. Three fillies appear to hold a wide edge on their rivals: Beam of Love (2-1), Linda’s Kisses (3-1) and Misty Pearl (5-1).

The first two fillies are on good performance figure lines as each appears poised for a forward move. The early line favorite makes her second start off a very long layup and stretches out to a more suitable route. She has a modicum of back class and hails from the going concern of Gary Contessa and Pablo Morales.

Linda’s Kisses has come into her own as a newly turned 4-year-old. Her last effort was her best to date and significantly it came in her debut on this surface. Trainer John Kimmel has been on a profitable roll in recent months and boasts tactical speed and the aggressive Eddie Castro. The difficulty will be overcoming a poor outside draw given the short run to the first turn at this trip.

When you look at Misty Pearl’s past performances, it makes you wonder what took trainer Victory Collazo so long to ship into New York with his 5-year-old state-bred mare. She’s been campaigning very effectively in Philadelphia and now meets New York breds. The barn is profitable with their stretch-outs, is well drawn inside with tactical speed and reunites with Alex Cintron, a multiple winner aboard the filly. On performance figures, she’s consistently faster than this group.

Taking Misty Pearl to win at 4-1 or greater and keying her first and second in exactas with her main rivals here. Trifecta players add Dynamite Jewel (7-2) to their mix.

Running Totals: (339) 102-70-45. Total Dollar Return: $705.10 [win selections only]

Written by John Pricci


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