Pricci's Free Daily Feature Race Analysis

Whenever his daily work schedule permits, HorseRaceInsider executive editor John Pricci will analyze that day's feature race from a major thoroughbred-racing jurisdiction.

Sunday, February 21, 2010

Come to Poppa

Clearly, Poppa’s Pick (6-1) is happy to be back in New York on this surface. In today’s contentious allowance sprint, he’s nicely drawn outside to take advantage of the much improved early speed he demonstrated last out.

With a highly competitive figure to race back to over this course from last March, a strong effort is expected. Channing Hill can be quietly aggressive under these circumstances and that gives him options here.

Taking the value offered with the Asmussen trainee to win at 4-1 of greater and keying him in the multiples first and second with the in-form Ricoriatoa (2-1) and Charlott Humor (5-2), each coming out of a live race.

Running Totals: (599) 187-121-82 Total Dollar Return: $1,298.70 [win selections only]

Written by John Pricci


Saturday, February 20, 2010

Today’s Southwest a Real Gamble

We’re putting the carbon in for today’s rescheduled Southwest Stakes from Oaklawn Park, with a slight variation.

In today’s Grade 3, the first stop on the road to the Arkansas Derby, we’re going back to the choice we bet in the Smarty Jones on Jan. 18, Kitty’s Turn.

In case you didn’t see it, Luis Quinonez gave away all his position after breaking fairly well for the rail post at the same distance. Then entered the stretch angling out 7 wide and finished well too late for third.

Kitty’s Turn was supposed to get a switch to Robby Albarado on Monday but this being a big day at the Fair Grounds, Robby’s staying put and B G Murphy takes the mount. Which, if nothing else, assures a better price.

As the early line suggests, this is NOT an easy spot, not with all the classy types and faster rivals tied on.

The redraw actually helped Dublin, who had the extreme outside Monday, and punished early favorite Conveyance, who moves from inside to out. And Garrett Gomez is going to Florida today, instead. Martin Garcia will keep the speedy Dryfly in his sights. The pace figures to be strong.

We’re changing our approach to this two-turn mile. Dublin is now solidly in the mix, but another price shot was also aided by the redraw. That would be Cool Bullet, who moves a bit more inside and picks up a switch to Jon Court.

Taking Kitty’s Turn across-the-board at 12-1 or greater, and Cool Bullet across-the-board at 8-1 or greater. Also making an exacta box of Kitty’s Turn, Cool Bullet and Dublin.

Running Totals: (598) 187-121-82 Total Dollar Return: $1,298.70 [win selections only]

Written by John Pricci


Friday, February 19, 2010

Class on the Grass

You’ll get your money’s worth in today’s feature at Gulfstream Park, a turf marathon going 12 furlongs, and if early line odds hold, there’s value available with the second favorite, Silver Mountain (4-1), who rightfully should be the public choice.

Yes, we understand that Christopher Clement does extraordinary with horses returning from long layups, in fact he’s had a profitable career in that scenario. But aside from a worthy effort going 11 furlongs at Golden Gate last year, we don’t understand all the fuss about Ordination (3-1).

One could argue I suppose that Silver Mountain has a bit of a disappointing profile. But certainly not from a lack of trying and doing so in some salty company. His last in the G2 McKnight at Calder was better than it looks on paper, but need it be? Talking secondary allowances-optional claimers here.

He’s 3-for-5 in the money at this trip with one victory and picks up Jose Lezcano, riding in great form in recent weeks. The five year old has been working purposefully for Tom Proctor, including a recent bullet half mile over the course termed breezing.

Taking Silver Mountain to win at 5-2 or greater and keying him first and second in multiples with Adari (6-1), coming off a good figure effort on this course and making its second start for Steve Klesaris, a historically profitable scenario, and Auction Watch (6-1), returning from a layup for Jonathan Sheppard.

Running Totals: (597) 187-120-82 Total Dollar Return: $1,298.70 [win selections only]

Written by John Pricci


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