Thunder Moccasin (7-5) won an extremely impressive debut with authority, earning an excellent figure with laudable energy distribution. Ever So Lucky has missed a bit of training with foot bruise but was an impressive juvenile for Hall of Famer Sheppard; do not underestimate talented colt but it doesn't seem prudent to take him at a short price.
Of the possible money horses, Il Villano followed series of pace tops with a lifetime best figure. He returns with good spacing and will be running late here. Fast developing Quick Wit never has taken a backward step and attracts Dominguez. Using all three beneath Thunder Moccasin in the exotics.
Running Totals: (1023) 316-203-148 Total Dollar Return: $2,182.40 [win selections only]
11 Feb 2012 at 08:44 am | #
For me, these types of races are the most difficult to predict, and the ones I least trust my figures. If I am to dine on the morning line, it has to be 5-Il Villano. Guess that must mean “The Villain” in Italian? Does them wrong in here.
5-Il Villano (3.81)
2-Wildcat Green (5.77)
6-Ever So Lucky (6.16)
TTT
11 Feb 2012 at 11:42 am | #
Was just listening to Roy Rogers singing “Happy Trails to You,” and remembering when they used to play it at the end of the last race at Hollywood. No matter whether you won or lost, it was something you could count on.
TTT
11 Feb 2012 at 10:31 pm | #
The game’s changed, T man. I notice ytou have an aversion to recent maiden graduates. I understand the principle, but it’s a different game that’s played in this scenario today.
Might write something about that this week, especially in relation to today’s Hutcheson.
12 Feb 2012 at 12:04 am | #
The only aversion I have is to losing, something Vince Lombardi taught me. Not an aversion, rather, it seems that those standout maiden graduates, such as Thunder Moccasin, are most often grossly overplayed, and if I choose to play, would most often rather take advantage of the elevated price on others. Has nothing to do with what people believe is the “bounce,” theory, which I do not subscribe to. Boy did he look good (Moccasin), and also K. McLaughlin’s horse, which smelled like a winner (a smell that can’t be described or duplicated). As stated, my figures can least be trusted in such situations, where there is limited data (such as with a maiden winner like Moccasin).
TTT
TTT
12 Feb 2012 at 10:39 am | #
I took my son to watch some simulcast yesterday and its funny how you can lose races and still have a great time. We were just shy on 4 different races losing by a nose 2 of them. Next time we will get lucky and hit all the close calls. I like the “Happy Trails to you” thing. I wish tracks would do more tradition stuff like that. Cool blog
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