On the Equiform scale, those in that camp may be right. Union Rags (2-1) ran as fast going long when second to Hansel in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile as Algorithms did while winning the Holy Bull. (The fastest final figure belongs to Discreet Dancer in his sprint debut.)
Union Rags will have two preps for the Kentucky Derby, so he figures to be pretty tight for today’s race. Matz has been handling him in that fashion while careful not to turn the screws too tightly. He might prove the “best horse” of the big three but how that translates today is little more than a guess.
Algorithms, based on a newly found ability to rate and the fact the trainer Pletcher owns a 25% strike rate with third-off-the-layoff starters. But what if Discreet Dancer gets away soft because rivals are too afraid to press him early? Or Union Rags indeed is the “best horse.” A fascinating puzzle to be sure.
We’re taking likely pocket-sitting finisher Algorithms to win with no price restrictions, key boxing him in exactas with his two main rivals and adding excuse-laden Casual Trick (8-1) to the exotics mix.
Running Totals: (1032) 319-203-148 Total Dollar Return: $2,199.80 [win selections only]
26 Feb 2012 at 05:25 am | #
My E.Q.U.I.N.E. comparative ratings, give a tremendous advantage here to 7-Union Rags, and in addition, point out 3-Fort Loudon, as the horse most likely to leave people scratching their head and using expletives at the finish line. I’m diving in head first with a cold exacta, and cover with 3-Fort Loudon.
7-Union Rags (2.11)
2-Algorithms (6.05)
3-Fort Loudon (7.60)
TTT
26 Feb 2012 at 06:05 am | #
Recall last month the Fawkes interview 3 min before post time stating Duke of Mischief needed a race-and he finished 5th. You said you might address this situation, but I have not yet read anything from you. So yesterday, 3 min before post, Billy Mott tells us Royal Delta will prbly not win, she is not ready. Enabled me to switch to Awesome Maria. You know the result. So shouldn’t some of this info be made public? Thousands of dollars are being gambled away by an unaware public. Thank God I have HRTV. Whaddya think, JRP (and TTT)?
26 Feb 2012 at 08:42 am | #
Can’t argue with you. Bill Mott hinted at this during the week, did reinforce the nature of a prep for Dubai but Billy is old school; doesn’t gush with pre-race info.
Interesting how TV always brings out the best in trainers. Or, maybe he took a look at Awesome Maria in the paddock and knew the dance was over before the band even started to play.
Glad you reminded me about Fawkes, now the Mott interview that I was not privy to. Good job. Meanwhile, if I forget again, remind me. I keep looking but the real fountain of youth keeps eluding me down here in paradise. I’ll keep looking, though.
26 Feb 2012 at 12:39 pm | #
Hot Horse, forgive me for capitalizing your name; I’m a real sicko sometimes. For me, giving me any more information than I already have would just confuse the hell out of me, and don’t want to have the added distraction of deciding how much truth there is in any one tidbit. However, do believe that a list of major ailments that a horse has been treated for by a veterinarian should be published with the past performances. With respect to layoffs, the cheaper the beast, the less likely I am to forgive the absence, which is proven by statistics. Most horses come back short; they may still win, but improve in their next run, which is often hidden in the running lines, as the tendency is to move them up if they do well (or the conditions dictate). Thus, I think the “bounce” theory should be limited to basketball. Realize that many things I believe are not in the mainstream (thank God). Could go on forever.
In the final analysis, it comes down to how much weight you put on the absence, at any one class level. Past trainer statistics, in my estimation, are next to useless, as gross aberations can be caused by some many unknown factors, and can fluctuate vastly in a short period of time.
TTT
TTT
26 Feb 2012 at 05:54 pm | #
Hey boys, how bout those picks i gave ya yesterday
27 Feb 2012 at 03:43 am | #
Very nice HH!!!!
28 Feb 2012 at 04:53 pm | #
Good job, Double H. May I have another, sir.