She won her U.S. debut more cleverly that the running line suggests, earning an excellent Equiform performance figure, but today’s race is a different animal; much tougher and deeper. However, if she’s legitimately G2 material, she will be a tough out.
Instead, we will take any value available with La Reine Lionne (5-1). Trying to improve her lifetime course record to 3-for-4 last out, she was beaten a nose in the G3 Marshua’s River.
Now she returns with ideal spacing and makes the mini-turnback to a mile, a distance at which she’s 3-for-3. Chad Brown is white hot at the moment; she owns tactical speed and kick, and someone who knows when to push the button in Johnny Velazquez.
We’ll take La Reine Lionne to win at 7-2 or greater and key boxing her in multiples with well-meant mile specialist Romacaca, the aforementioned Future Generation and the returning Bay To Bay (6-1) who could upset the group if set for best in her return.
Running Totals: (1045) 323-204-152 Total Dollar Return: $2,229.40 [win selections only]
18 Mar 2012 at 06:38 am | #
Your selection cost me a pretty penny in last; 7-Tapitsfly will probably improve off that last one, and the old gray mare wasn’t what she could be, and will be, today. No excuses, and I can only hope for 4- or 5-1 today. It’s a crap shoot (come on 7) disguised as a horse race, makes my head spin, but I like it.
7-Tapitsfly (4.20)
2-Bay to Bay (6.15)
11-New Normal (10.80)
TTT
18 Mar 2012 at 08:39 am | #
T, probably could have gone a half dozen ways and convinced myself I was right by the time I was done. Just thought my filly was the most reliable on the day. Great betting race.
Actually, these are the kind of races that if at the track, I won’t wager until the final minutes. Handcapping is about picking winners; winning is about getting fair value.
18 Mar 2012 at 03:17 pm | #
Was a big fan of your top choice coming out of Florida last winter. She hasn’t really moved forward off that form. She couldn’t hold off Heavenly Landing last out, and that one was dreadful next out. Future Generation will take some beating but Cumulonimble looks capable at a good price. This is one very fine synthetic/grass filly, which has only been off the board once - that against a tough field on boggy turf from the far outside- making the third start off an 18 month break. In her last, she was right there to deep stretch against the favorite despite a wide trip. A good tactical style and a positive switch back to Lezcano don’t hurt.
18 Mar 2012 at 11:08 pm | #
Kyle, you must admitt LRR ran very well yesterday. Did all the dirty work chasing the pace while losing ground throughout and was beaten 3/4s of a length for all of it.
Your filly, Future Generation, was very hot in the ring and probably lost her race before it started. You might consider stable mail.
T, you’re on a roll! Keep up the good work.
19 Mar 2012 at 11:30 am | #
She did run well, John. Like I wrote, I have been a fan of her’s. Just thought the up and comers could leap frog the classier group. I bet Cumulonimble. She had no response at the top of the stretch. Between you and Teddy you had the tri and the super. Good job.