It’s a tough puzzle with so many of these up in class and distance while others are turning back from two turns to one. The fillies we’ll concentrate on are the favorites, Lady Chace (8-5) and Zaftig (2-1).
Ordinarily, we’d try to find alternatives to these short-price propositions who both are steeping up in class and distance. But they’ve proven to be a lot faster than their rivals and speed in most likely to kill here.
Lady Chace earned an excellent figure winning at Gulfstream Park preliminary allowances, by far the fastest figure in the field, and Todd Pletcher is a profitable 29 percent effective with first-time routers. But what might make her vulnerable is the presence of early-speed types who might compromise her running style and returning on relatively short rest.
While Zaftig is not as fast and is only a recent maiden winner, she’s shown rare maturity with good energy distribution in both starts, including a good figure score on the stretch-out while delivering her best punch late.
Trainer Jimmy Jerkens is very effective with returnees coming back with more than sufficient rest and he taps Ramon Dominguez for the riding assignment. His extraordinary sense of pace is a valuable commodity given today’s tricky race shape.
Taking Zaftig and early line odds of 2-1 or greater and an exacta box with Lady Chace.
Running Totals: (191) 64-41-22. Total Dollar Return: $401.80 [win selections only]