Not bad for a Wednesday.
In any event, the Lake George is loaded and while the two early line favorites easily are the most probable winners, it’s far from a two-horse race vis a vis wagering.
The two favorites, obviously, are Stephanie’s Kitten (5-2) and Samitar (3-1). Stephanie’s Kitten is developing beautifully with figures that are marching forward incrementally. But for “class on the grass” fans, she’s got that, too, as the winner of the G1 Alcibiades and the G2 Breeders’ Juvenile Fillies Turf.
And it certainly would be appropriate if last year’s leading Saratoga rider and upcoming Hall of Fame inductee were to win it. His next loss aboard this Catalano-trained filly will be his first in four rides.
But the wildcard in her is Samitar, yet another Martin Schwartz high-priced European purchase. She is a Group 1 winner in Europe and, as such, might have this field at her mercy—and that includes the accomplished Stephanie’s Kitten.
To make matters worse for the early line choice, Samitar attracts Ramon Dominguez, who appeared to be on a mission even before Sunday’s six-pack of winners.
Still, we’ll take Stephanie’s Kitten to win at early line odds or greater, an exacta box with Samitar, and will use the sharp improving Centre Court (4-1), G2 winning Better Lucky (8-1), Dancing Solo (10-1), seeking her third straight with Bravo shipping up to ride, and Medolina, 3-for-3 lifetime with Castellano—the last two fillies being Todd Pletcher trainees.
Running Totals: (1122) 345-218-168 Total Dollar Return: $2,373.20 [win selections only]
25 Jul 2012 at 02:53 pm | #
Hey Mr. Preach--just a quick question about your total dollar return calculation: you often indicate that your wager is a conditional one based on the odds, and when the final odds are below your conditional betting line, I assume you did not “bet”, yet the dollar return is added to your total. What, then, is the point of establishing a value betting line? By the way, this Q is not intended to challenge your excellent handicapping record!
Thanks.
eric s.
25 Jul 2012 at 06:45 pm | #
#5 dancing Solo 22.2
#2 Stephanie kitten 22.3
#1 Elusive Rumour 22.0 alowance winner front runner good chance
#4 Better Lucky 23.2
#7 SomaliLemonade 22.1 good chance in the ex & tri
tough race good price for tir sup ex
25 Jul 2012 at 10:13 pm | #
Eric, your point is well taken. I establish price criteria for myself but that in no way in my mind alters the chances of winning or losing; obviously we’re always trying to be on the winner.
Actually, since roughly two of every three picks lose, as do the post time favorites; the ROI would be higher since many selections would not count, so to speak.
We go on record each day and that selection should count regardless of price. That only seems fair to the reader.
But it’s a good observation. thanks for providing an opportunity to clarify on the purpose of this feature.