Today's Time for a Change Stakes, an overnighter for 3YOs going a mile, is quite challenging for a 6-horse affair. Per usual, this kind of scenario usually results in a "rider's race" where tactics and trips decide the outcome.

There are several directions to go, depending on how you see the race unfolding, but those exercises are always dangerous, the reason why they run races in the first place.

We're calling for a minor upset with the Kiaran McLaughlin-trained Long River (2-1), making his third start off a layup which is a worthy and profitable 33% scenario for this outfit.

Working sharply for his return, the A. P. Indy colt has improved with Lasix and comes from a race that's produced a winner from as many starters. His style and outside post should give Irad Ortiz plenty of options once the gate opens.

Taking Long Rider to win at 2-1 or greater and key boxing him first and second with distance specialist Smooth Bert (8-1) and dynamics-suited Vegas No Show (6-1).

Number of Selections since May, 2007: 1431

Number of Win-Place-Show Finishers: 436-270-216

Amount Wagered: $2,862 [to win only]

Total Dollar Return on Investment: $2,969.30

Profit to Date: $107.30 {Saturday results not included}