A representative field has shown up, but only three have an excellent chance to win, from the inside, out: Pictavia (1-1), Palmilla (5-1) and My Rachel (9-2).
Pictavia is a worthy choice and the most probable winner. Consistently faster on performance figures than the group, she was successful in marathons in Europe, returns fresh off a 76-day layup, and hails from a barn, Saeed bin Suroor’s, that’s a profitable 28 percent with its turf runners. The filly has tactical speed, can finish, draws inside and attracts Garrett Gomez.
Palmilla has come to hand at 4 for trainer Jonathan Sheppard. Her most recent effort equaled her lifetime best performance, which means she’s sitting on an explosive try here. She was in with a tough group the only time she tried a marathon distance in Florida and was competitive. She comes up to the added distance with a suitable pedigree and off a sharp score. Sheppard’s 19 percent with repeaters. Palmilla's good value at morning line odds.
My Rachel is a late developing five-year-old that’s won two straight for Todd Pletcher. She showed big improvement on figures in winning her last but therein lies the problem. That effort might leave her lacking for reserves at today’s added distance and vs. tougher rivals. The good news is she sheds seven pounds from her last race in which she carried 123; not insignificant.
But we’re taking Pictavia to win, no price restrictions, and keying her first and second in exacta boxes with Palmilla and My Rachel, an extra ticket with Palmilla.
Running Totals: (62) 29-12-9 Dollar Return: $168.10