Two fillies with the best early speed are making their seasonal debuts. Fresh, they likely will be on their respective engines. The others either are very hard-trying, stalkers from close range, or are training extremely well. What to do?
Begrudgingly, we’ve narrowed the probable choices down to three: Genuine Devotion (2-1), Thunders Dove (4-1) and Tiger On The Loose (7-2).
Genuine Devotion hasn’t started since New Year’s Eve when she ran a hole in the wind, breaking her maiden by 9 ¾ lengths, earning an extremely fast performance figure. Perhaps that was a contributing factor to today’s 201-day layoff.
Since she won that race from box to wire, we have no idea whether or not she can be rated. Trainer Kiaran McLaughlin is winning at a profitable 25 percent rate this year and is 31 percent when giving Alan Garcia a leg up. She might never look back.
Thunders Dove is making her first start since September 3rd, and the excellent performance figure she earned should improve given the maturity factor now as a 2007 three-year-old. Obviously good when fresh, Thunders Dove makes her first start for Nick Zito, who’s won with six of 18 new acquisitions over the last year, a profitable and gaudy 33 percent.
But like the early line favorite in here, she’s a speed type and a tough read in terms of rate-ability.
Tiger On The Loose looks like the percentage play. A four-year-old vs. younger, the Bobby Frankel barn has been white hot, winning with five of his last six local starters. Rafael Bejarano gets the call. Of all the fillies entered, she seems most amenable to rating but that cannot be known for sure until she does so.
While not as fast as her two main rivals, Tiger On The Loose has shown improvement in her second start following a layup, including a maiden win at 2, and that’s the scenario here. It is hoped Bejarano can draft in behind the pacesetters, rather than chase outside on the turn that never ends.
Taking Tiger On The Loose to win at 5-2 or greater, keying her first and second in exactas with the other two fillies. Trifecta players can add Miss Tizzy to the mix.
Running Totals: (62) 29-12-9. Dollar Return: $168.10 [no wager Thursday as turf feature remained on the grass]