The race has drawn a field of six but the win prize likely will go to one of two, the likely odds-on post time favorite, What A Tale, or likely second choice, Chief’s Lake. Value may be hard to find in the Mike Lee.
What A Tale, while the most probable winner, is a tough read. His local debut was so fast--many lengths ahead of today’s rivals--that a bounce is almost assured despite 36 days of recovery.
What makes it so tough is that it was the colt’s first start for Bruce Levine and first over the track, a combination that might have helped produce such a Herculean effort. Levine is a profitable 27 percent with potential repeaters.
Chief’s Lake could provide value if bet sensibly relative to What A Tale. He broke through his juvenile top in his recent sophomore debut, a good sign of development, and while the move was significant it still seems to have left room for another forward move.
This colt is 3-for-4 at Belmont Park and 2-for-3 beneath Garrett Gomez. Trainer Scott Lake is 22 percent profitable with horses making their second start for him.
Seeking value, we're taking Chief’s Lake to win at 2-1 or greater and an exacta box with What A Tale.
Running Totals: (47) 23-9-9 Dollar Return: $132.10 [win selections only; does not reflect Saturday's results]
