The likely favorite, on the strength of his high profile connections and ultra-impressive debut, is Try To Fly. He could easily repeat here for Doug O’Neill as the heralded part of an uncoupled entry, but he offers little value.
The horse with the fastest-figure potential is returnee Principle Secret, who was undefeated until his connections got ambitious and raced him in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. After two more failed attempts going long, he was put on the shelf and returns here. He ran as fast as a two-year-old as many of these have at 3. Impressive.
Doubters will correctly note that Chris Paasch does not specialize in winning with layups and is only winning at 7% this meet. But he is a flat-bet profit in ungraded stakes and his winners have been profitable this year despite the poor percentage, indicating his starters are outrunning their odds.
Otherwise, he is a Grade 2 winner at this taxing hybrid sprit distance, is working strongly and reunites with winning partner Alex Solis. He should have the table set for him as Idiot Proof and/or Something Sonic figure to provide a strong pace. Principle Secret would offer win value at odds of 9-2 or more.
