Rather Lay the Favorite Than Play the Favorite

Let's look at the Park Avenue Division, that is to say, the distaff half of the New York Stallion Stakes for New York-breds going as today’s seventh race at Aqueduct.

You’ll need no search warrant to find the favorite here. That would be early line choice Mighty Eros (5-2), who won his debut by a pole in exceptionally fast time. She has sufficient recovery time coming back for this--six weeks--but she’ll need to be stronger later, given today’s added furlong.

As the likely heavy favorite, however, we must play ‘Eros’ to back up.

The filly that figures to improve is Laurentide Ice (7-2) for Mark Hennig. Visually she appeared in need of her recent return from a layup, and the stats may back up that perception. Hennig is around 12% effective coming off a lengthy break but almost 18% in his second start returning from a layoff.

Laurentide Ice proved she was fast enough in her maiden effort at two. More recently her best figure was earned going a flat mile, a similar dynamic to today’s seven furlongs. Returning from his home base, where he won the Federico Tesio yesterday with Xchanger as easily as horses win races, Ramon Dominguez is likely to work out a ground-saving journey before setting sail into the long Aqueduct straight.

Taking Laurentide Ice to win, at 3-1 or greater; exacta box with Mighty Eros.