We'll reduce the most-probable win list to two: trainer Charlton Baker's Lethal Missile and Pay Attention, the apparent stronger half of the Winning Move/Gary Contessa-trained coupling.
Baker has been white hot in recent weeks, winning twice and placing thrice with his last five starters. His Lethal Missile is, by definition, the fastest horse in the race on performance figures. That fast race came at 1-1/16th miles, the same one-turn dynamic as today's. With his versatile running style and inside draw, he's likely to sit a good trip under optimal conditions.
It appears, however, that Pay Attention has a bit more going for him. Like 'Missile,' he does his best racing in one-turn elongated sprints, indeed as the fastest miler in the race. Sharp, he seeks his third straight win in his first start off the Contessa claim. Gary is a profitable 22% efficient under that scenario. The six-year-old owns a similar versatile style, and stablemate Heathrow could provide excellent insurance, stable rider Ramon Dominguez in the boot. Note that Contessa's horses are a profitable 22% when stretching out off two consecutive sprints. But the preference is for Pay Attention.
Taking Pay Attention to win and an exacta box, including the entire Contessa entry with Lethal Missile.
Running Total: Selections: (4) Results: 2-1-1 ROI: $13.20