While Thunderestimate appears a nice colt seeking his fourth straight victory and never has taken a backward step on performance figures, he doesn’t enjoy the kind of wide edge over his rivals that his record might suggest at short odds. Also, he's making his first start at today’s extended distance.
The fastest horse in the race is the shipper, Get Serious. Going back to early spring, he’s been trained like a good horse, showed improvement to win his second start in fast time, then was ambitiously placed in an open company stakes, his two turn debut, the Long Branch, a race that typically attracts some talented three-year-olds.
This year was no exception when First Defence shipped over from New York for Bobby Frankel and won the event convincingly at a very short price, earning an excellent figure. But Get Serious was a very good second. The rub here is that he has no turf experience, a shortcoming that didn’t stop Nobiz Like Shobiz in Monday’s Hall of Fame. Either you like turf or you don’t. Get Serious gets a chance to prove it while meeting state-breds for the first time. Bred for turf on top and distance on the bottom of his pedigree, he should be a very tough out.
Good Prospect is a colt with better than a puncher’s chance to upset. His most recent turf figure was competitive with the early line favorite’s, and he’s continued to improve since that race. Today he reunites with Johnny Velazquez, aboard for a turf win at today’s route. That's not insignificant. Today's favorites can make no mistakes.
We rarely do this, but we’re suggesting two win plays (though only one will be reflected in the running totals).
Taking Get Serious to win at 2-1 or greater, and a saver wager on Good Prospect at 5-1 or more. Additionally, taking an exacta part wheel of Get Serious and Good Prospect with each other and Thunderestimate for second to complete the play.
Running Totals: (76) 34-16-10. Dollar Return: $197.70 [win selections only]