Normally a sizable field, this Grade 2 edition has drawn but a half dozen. We’ll look at three, from the rail, out: Marcavelly (2-1), Distorted Reality (5-2) and Nobiz Like Shobiz (9-5).
Unquestionably, Nobiz Like Shobiz is the most accomplished, and fastest on the Equiform performance scale. But he’s a tough read. He’s not particularly well bred for his turf debut and still has a bit of those goofy focus issues in the stretch (though he was better when blinkers were removed for his latest), and he’ll be a short price.
On the plus side, however, is his recent :58 4/5 work on the Oklahoma turf course and he gets in light at 115 pounds after carrying scaleweights all spring against the best three-year-olds in America. What to do?
Meanwhile, Marcavelly is from the Bill Mott barn that’s having no less than a sensational meet. Even when his horses are getting beat, they’re running well, and he’s doing it in every category, even with two-year-olds! Marcavelly is a multiple graded stakes winner on grass, draws the pole, has good early speed but is even better from off the pace. But he spots his two main rivals three and seven pounds, not insignificant in a close race.
Distorted Reality peaked last out but not significantly so, making a bounce less likely, and is the only horse with a win at nine furlongs. That win was accompanied by blinkers off and he’s worked very sharply since that effort. JV riding for Pletcher here, albeit Todd having a less than stellar meet to date.
Six-horse races can be trappy. And this one’s fraught with all sorts of questions.
Taking Marcavelly to win at 2-1 or greater, keying him first and second in exactas with his two main rivals.
Running Totals: (74) 34-15-10 Dollar Return: $197.70 [win selections only] (does not include Sunday’s results)