Ferocious Won (4-1) has the best performance figures, the right connections and a promising turf pedigree, but it’s hard to spot experience to so many proven turf horses. Not a good percentage win play, but easily could prove us wrong.
Redefined (9-2) is razor sharp coming off a win, the spacing is good, and trainer John Parisella continues to overachieve given limited opportunities.
Theconfidenceman (6-1) is very interesting. He makes his second start off a layup for Leo O’Brien, who’s twice as effective coming off a prep race than when he is when not. The turf pro has good back figures and fits the conditions nicely at fair early line odds.
Metro Meteor (8-1) is the other interesting entrant. He was scratched recently from a recent stakes going longer now returns in a more favorable spot for Gary Contessa, a profitable 18 percent with new acquisitions. The horse is fast, can finish, and likes this course. His late run could be very effective in this spot.
No Parole (3-1) is a six-furlong turf specialist at Belmont Park but, at early line odds and with a wide draw, looms a poor percentage win play.
I almost don’t want to see Mr Sam I Am (8-1) draw in. He’s 2-for-3 on Belmont turf and 1-for-1 at the distance. On performance figures, he broke through in his recent four-year-old debut, and is dangerous on the turn-back for Todd and Johnny. His early line odds offer value but he is unlikely to be anything near that price at post time.
We are betting two horses to win here: Theconfidenceman at 5-1 or better, and Metro Meteor at 6-1 or more. Both will be counted in running totals but only if they satisfy odds requirements. (That’s only fair when suggesting two win plays in the same race. Selections are for turf only).
We will also key Theconfidenceman and Metro Meteor first and second with the other horses named in the trifecta, giving us a chance to cash twice if it breaks the right way.
Running Totals: (35) 15-9-7 Dollar Return: $82.30 [win selections only]