More notorious on the national scene, Rick Dutrow is on a local roll, winning with every third starter he’s saddled at the meet. In this contest, he has Mr. Umphrey (3-1), who owns the fastest recent performance figure by virtue of a neck defeat in a small sprint stakes at the Meadowlands. Back in a “non-winners of three other than maiden or claiming or optional $75,000 claimer,” he also sheds four pounds with the switch to stable apprentice Angel Arroyo. A repeat of his most recent effort puts him in the circle here.
But the preferred Dutrow, Pavo, will be saddled by brother Anthony, as part of a stable coupling with Morine’s victory, the second fastest of this group. But it’s recent claim Pavo (7-2) we’re interested in here. The five-year-old gelding loves the winter track. All his best races have come on this surface and he’ll go first time for a man that’s 29 percent efficient on this track, showing a profit of nearly 10 cents on the dollar given a sample of over 300 races. Add in the fact that this chestnut’s big late kick fit’s the race shape today and will be partnered by Ramon Dominguez, who rides at 34 percent for the “lesser known” Dutrow sibling.
Taking Pavo to win at 5-2 or greater and an exacta box with Mr. Umphrey. Will also try to optimize the play with a trifecta key of Pavo first and second with Mr. Umphrey, surface-loving dropdown Southern Missile (12-1), and the well connected, well spotted, Callmetony (5-1).
Running Totals: (138) 49-30-15. Total Dollar Return: $289.90 [win selections only]