This one’s wide open in that five of the eight entrants are within a few lengths of each other on performance figures. Race shape and trips will be a real key here and with mostly top outfits and riders in the race, there’s no real edge to be taken. We’ll look at two of the five: Lady Renaissance (5-1) and My Rachel (7-2).
Lady Renaissance is most likely to offer value since she’s not as fast as most of these but she has the most upside as a four-year-old, if a fresh filly and could not be in better hands with Christophe Clement and Garrett Gomez. She owns a win at today’s trip, an advantage over some of her main rivals and will benefit from her last as she was compromised by the softest pace of her career. She likely will be in good position given her freshness and relatively paceless conditions.
My Rachel has never been the distance but should handle it well for Todd and Johnny returning in six weeks with steady recent works. She earned good figures at both eight and 11 furlongs, has done so on this course, where she owns and win and placing in three attempts. She has a bit more tactical speed than her main rival but obviously has had some issues being a relatively lightly raced five year-old. But she’s going well now and figures to be at the top of her game which would be enough here.
Taking My Rachel with some reservations and would need 3-1 or more to play in earnest. Making exacta key boxes with My Rachel and Miracle Moment, by definition the fastest horse in here.
Running Totals: (120) 42-28-13. Dollar Return: $244.50 [win selections only]