The play is to defeat early-line 7-2 favorite Why Tonto, 2-for-2 on turf, but over firm ground from inside posts at the Meadowlands. The going will be less than firm today and the colt is drawn outside. Of course he can win, but at short odds we’ll lay him, not play him.
From the inside, out, we’re looking at Carry The Day (15-1), Moral Compass (4-1) and Grasberg (12-1).
Carry The Day has the most experience and has been toughened in a series of stakes. He broke his maiden on good ground on this course and is developing nicely, showing improved early speed on dirt, a competitive-figure effort on turf, then was hindered by a very slow pace and wide trip behind Breeders’ Cup-bound The Leopard last out. Is early line odds are way out of line given his form.
Moral Compass comes from the white hot Barclay Tagg shed and is, by definition, the fastest horse in the race. He owns terrific early speed, which he used in his recent victory. He worked a bullet in preparation for this and attracts the hot riding Norberto Arroyo Jr. He is likely to shake loose early in this spot, especially if his key race prior sprinting is any measure.
Grasberg is interesting. Following a maiden score, he ran better than odds when entered in the Pilgrim Stakes, a sign of confidence from the barn. He comes out of the same race as Carry The Day, in which he was third to The Leopard after making an impressive debut at Saratoga, coming from far back with a strong late rally. He, too, is a big price on the early line.
The scenario demands that we make an exacta box of these three contenders and will make a win bet on Carry The Day at 8-1 or greater, plus a saver half-wager to win on the other price shot, Grasberg.
Running Totals: (125) 44-28-13. Dollar Return: $261.50 [win selections only]