As always, turf sprints are difficult to predict but consequently provide ample opportunities for value. Such is the case in today’s Caress Stakes for fillies and mares on the Belmont inner turf course at six furlongs. Two we find most intriguing are Lemon Drop Gal (3-1) and Queen Amira (5-1).

Queen Amira is making her second start of the campaign for Bill Mott and attracts Garrett Gomez. The filly was compromised in her recent return by yielding ground and the resultant very slow pace. The opportunity for her to kick on in late stretch was not afforded her. She will be a much tougher filly this afternoon. She has a performance figure last fall that is the equal of anything in here.

Lemon Drop Gal has been proven to be fast and with greater consistency. She’s never finished worse than second in three starts on this course and, unlike many of her rivals today, she has proven more effective at the six-furlong distance than when sprinting five-eighths. She gives away recent conditioning to many of her rivals here but has trained purposefully, and quickly, for her five-year-old debut. She owns tactical speed and good late pace.

Taking Lemon Drop Gal to win at 5-2 or greater and an exacta box with Queen Amira.

Running Totals: (29) 12-8-7 ROI: $70.00 (based on win selections only)