Dave (5-1) makes his seasonís debut for Barclay Tagg, adept with returnees off a lengthy layoff. Nicely drawn inside, Dave has tactical and late speed and in John Velazquez a rider who knows how to gain position, work out a beneficial trip from an inside slip, and time the move perfectly. Dave handles the turf course and the distance well.
Certifiably Crazy owns the best performance figures and is a tactical speedster. He likes the Belmont turf course and is versatile at any two-turn distance. The problem for him is that he has a speed horse directly to his inside him and he might be forced to chase the pace at the loss of some ground. In that context, heís a poor percentage play.
Golden Commander is the early line favorite at 5-2 and just missed in an open class graded stakes, a much tougher test than he faces here. But a short price, a compromising outside post, and returning on short rest is not a sensible percentage play, either. Further, heís only 1-for-13 on the Belmont turf.
Taking Dave to win at 4-1 or greater, and keying him first and second in exactas with Certifiably Crazy and Golden Commander.
Running Totals: (20) 8-6-4. ROI: $52.60.