It’s a less than inspiring betting race and a handicapping puzzle that requires more guesswork than analysis.
Not sure how one defeats likely odds-on favorite Octave, winner of the Grade 1 Mother Goose last time out. Remarkably, she never has taken a backward step on performance figures in her entire career.
Octave’s won at nine furlongs and probably has enough class and pedigree to get a mile and a quarter. It’s just that she’s no cinch to love the route, and comes back relatively quickly for an outfit that you know would have preferred to have more time between races.
There really are only two realistic alternatives. One is undefeated in three starts and was very impressive winning a listed stakes last time out. The problem is Lear’s Princess never has run on dirt and might be running here only because Rags And Riches isn’t. She is by the long-winded Lear Fan and just might be up to this. Key word here is might.
Folk is the most interesting. She’s as fast as the favorite on performance figures, has won three of four lifetime starts on dirt, appears to have been pointed toward this and has the best distance pedigree in the field. She is the speed of the speed, likely will gain a loose early lead but 10 furlongs off the bench all the way in front is a tough go, especially with a proven Grade 1 winner stalking her all the way.
If Folk only had one prep. If Lear’s Princess only had one race on conventional dirt. But they don’t.
Reluctantly, we’re taking Octave to win, no price restrictions, exacta key boxes with Folk and Lear’s Princess.
Running Totals: (62) 29-12-9 Dollar Return: $168.10 [does not include Friday’s results]