The early line favorite, Mama Theresa (2-1), looks beatable; she’s fast on figures and early speed but seldom makes it all the way to the wire. We think it will come down to Lost Etiquette (5-2) and Lauren’s Tizzy (7-2).
Lost Etiquette is the fastest on performance figures but never has run back to her excellent debut effort. In fact, she’s shown no development at three but does seem to be rounding into top form. Trainer Pat Reynolds is having a fine year (24 percent) and Edgar Prado sees fit to re-ride.
But we’ll give the edge to a four-year-old who, while not as fast on performance figures, is developing nicely this season and is likely to hold that fine form despite her 123-pound impost, most of that Garrett Gomez.
Additionally, she’s won a secondary allowances for state-breds but get in this open race on a favorable restricted clause. The Mark Hennig shed seems to be gearing up as this meet progresses. Lauren’s Tizzy is more likely to provide good value relative to her chances for victory.
Taking Lauren’s Tizzy to win at 5-2 or greater, and an exacta box with Lost Etiquette.
Running Totals: (53) 26-11-9 Dollar Return: $152.70 [win selections only]