The now horse is Brilliant, who’s developed into a classy stakes runner as a four-year-old for Neil Howard. Fastest recently on the Equiform scale, he was an excellent second to the double tough Remarkable News, beating the third horse by over four lengths, and just missed previously in a G1 on the Derby undercard. He can handle any footing.
If Silver Tree has lost a step to age, it’s a half-step. He’s seeking his third straight win and handles any distance. He’s expected to get the very firm footing he likes, has excellent kick and reunites with Kent Desormeaux, aboard for the win two back. In addition to kick he has enough tactical speed to gain favorable early position. Did we mention that Bill Moot trains?
Fishy Advice is very interesting. Donk will try to make it two turf stakes in succession, having won yesterday’s overnight Glow, and gets Castellano back, a multiple winner aboard this five-year-old. He has good early speed, can finish, owns a win over the course and is undefeated in three starts at the distance. He had a sharp blowout for his third start off the layup and should be set for best now.
Host is a proven G1 winner with a big late kick and Todd Pletcher has him running fast figures with consistency. The poor post draw could help provide value and the highly consistent veteran switches to Johnny Velazquez, riding especially well at the meet. But you would need more than early line odds before seriously considering a win bet.
Brilliant is the most probable winner, but Fishy Advice is the play at odds of 10-1 or greater. Also making two exacta keys, taking Brilliant and Fishy Advice first and second with Silver Tree and Host, which would yield two winning tickets should Brilliant and Fishy Advice finish 1-2.
Running Totals: (74) 34-15-10 Dollar Return: $197.70 [win selections only]