The New York racing week begins with an overnight stakes, the Fiesta Lady, for four-year-fillies at six furlongs.

I know I sound like a broken record, but I must say what I think: another relatively small field, another highly contentious race.

Any of the four wouldnt surprise, from the inside, out: Ticket To Seattle (4-1), Golden Dawn (8-1), Dani Tom Boy (9-5) and Ghost Dancing (2-1). But the problem with them and some of the others is that they are best in front. And choosing the speed of the speed isnt easy here.

Ticket To Seattle is, by definition, the fastest and has been battle tested in consistently tougher company. But shes an in-and-out sort who needs the lead. She is, however, working very well and could outclass the group should she speed-pop and scoot away early.

Golden Dawn is coming off a pair of lifetime best efforts following a barn change to Mike Hushion and generally its hard to project a third straight forward move. But the races werent too fast as to automatically signal a regression and its very interesting to note that Hushion if 5 for his last 10 starts with runners making their third start off a layup.

As the racetrack clich goes, Dani Tom Boy ran to parts unknown in her latest while coming off a layup. Trainer Ben Perkins stats actually improve in second start following a lengthy layup and, visually, her turn-move last time had to be seen to be appreciated. But the figure was so extraordinary that she just has to regress. But that win came on this surface and if she speed-pops the field.

Ghost Dancing comes from the Tony Dutrow barn that excels with long-layup returnees. She won on this surface last season and earned competitive figures as an early season three-year-old. If set for best best--and her best will be needed--she has the upside and connections (Ramon Dominguez up) to get the job done.

Ticket, Dani and Ghost all qualify as most probable winners, thats why we must opt for potential value. Taking Golden Dawn to win at 6-1 or greater and keying her second and third in exactas and trifectas with the three more likely contenders.

Running Totals: (158) 56-34-17. Total Dollar Return: $347.60 [win selections only]