Pricci's Free Daily Feature Race Analysis

Five days per week and every racing day during the Saratoga meet, John Pricci will provide horse racing selections of that day's feature race. When the racing schedule dictates otherwise, there will be analysis from other major thoroughbred Tracks. Check back here 5 days a week for free horse racing selections.

In addition to his race analysis, John will provide commentary in a weekly "On the Line" column and daily blogs under the "Pricci's Morning Line" banner.



Sunday, November 30, 2014


Trainer Knows Best


HRI has entered into a promotional relationship with 123.gaming.com in which each Sunday we analyze the six races that comprise their unique Pick 6 contest wager, the current featured track being Parx Racing. The following is a profile of races 4 through 9. For the purposes of the Feature Race Analysis, in today's 8th race we're taking the value offered on Calamondin (9-2) to win, no price restrictions, and boxing the exacta with Jacobson ship-in Glickman (3-1).


FOURTH: 10-LUDO BAGMAN (3-1)
in from New York for Jacobson and getting Pennington, never has run this cheaply—barn a very worthy 35% effective with two class dropdowns; easily proves best if fit. 4-WOODY’S SHOW (5-1) showed improved speed when coming back in six weeks after gamely winning prior; has been well spotted at this level and late developing 3YO should continue to improve.

FIFTH: HOLD THE WIRE (2-1) returns at optimal distance for Nations, who’s been on a tear of late and is 32% profitable with its maiden claimers and 31% with its beaten favorites; drops, pole sitting and gets Vaz on the re-ride. JUST ACE (3-1), nicely drawn outside, has run well in both lifetime starts and was claimed by Trombetta, 19% effective with new acquisitions and profitable with class risers; has run well at the trip and McCarthy’s been on a recent tear.

SIXTH: 4-PINK HERO (4-1) showed marked improvement to win last at 6-1/2F, earning out top Energy Figure, well spotted at this level and easily repeats with similar effort. 3-TOUCH OF FAITH (12-1) second to the choice two back at this level, raced evenly and dully behind tougher in last; returns to proper level and switches back to regular partner Caballaro; 3YO still has some upside and looms value at early line odds. 6-SOPHIE’S SECRET (9-2), surface lover, drops to classes for LeBarron, 25% effective with beaten favorites, and switches to talented, live apprentice; could easily win this open scramble.

SEVENTH: 4-IRISH JASPER (2-1) in from NY following good late-finish third in starter allowances after breaking maiden here by open lengths in debut; earned excellent ascending figures that easily takes this reuniting with Carmouche.
2-LITE AND SWEET (12-1), from same NY race as choice, was also an open lengths maiden breaker on this track previously; excellent value at early line odds. I JUST WANNA WIN (3-1) beat weaker with authority in maiden debut Nov. 23 and was claimed by Pino, 29% effective with first-time acquisitions.

EIGHTH: 7-CALAMONDIN (9-2) was overmatched and out-posted by beaten off in Laurel (turf) Dash last out after earning top Energy Rating score on this surface previously; recent blowout for this was 6th fastest of 67 peers to work last week at Parx; scratched last night at Penn National in favor of this. 2-GLICKMAN (3-1) takes confident rise shipping in for Jacobson following daylight score over 40K claimers at Big A Nov. 12; won here three starts back and reuniting with winning rider Pennington.

NINTH: 5-IMAGE (2-1) speedy 3YO takes next logical step in conditions following lengthy wire score; has come to hand this summer and fall, returns here with good spacing on a mini-turn-back to winning distance for Lake; 21% effective
with attempting repeaters. 9-LIKE A DIVA (8-1) will be running late and benefits from shift outside; apprentice Ritvo riding for uncle Mike Petro in this spot. 10-DREAMINGOFAUNTLIZ (6-1) turns back to her most effective trip and likely to
be stalking, benefitting from shift outside.


RUNNING TOTALS

Number of Selections since 2007: 1650

Number of Win and Place Finishes: 495-323

Amount Wagered: $3,300 [to win only]

Total Dollar Return on Investment: $3,400.40

Profit to Date: $100.40

Written by John Pricci

Comments (3)


 
 

Saturday, November 29, 2014


All My Life’s a Circle


Today's Big A feature is the final Grade 1 of the New York season, the Cigar Mile, and the competition comes in all shapes and sizes and from every different direction.

My feeling is that Bob Baffert's going to have lots to give thanks for by the time this weekend ends. It started in Kentucky yesterday with Hopportunity, off the bench to win Churchill's Clark.

And before his crew saddles the favorite for today's Jockey Club Stakes there, someone will tighten the girth on Secret Circle (5-2), a game runner-up in the BC Sprint last out.

Today he makes his third start off a layup and he'll stretch out two furlongs, a distance at which he owns a first and second in two starts. Nicely drawn toward the outside in the one-turn affair, he should stalk from close range before Joel Rosario turns him loose.

Itasmyluckyday (5-1) is not as fast as these but will love the conditions, everybody saw the trip Bourbon Courage (10-1) had in the Sprint and, believe it or not, Big Business (20-1) is on with a puncher's chance. We'll key box Secret Circle 1-2 in all exotics with these three.

Number of Selections since 2007: 1649

Number of Win-Place-Show Finishes: 495-322-256

Amount Wagered: $3,298 [to win only]

Total Dollar Return on Investment: $3,400.40

Profit to Date: $102.40

Written by John Pricci

Comments (4)


 
 

Friday, November 28, 2014


Willnt Will


Today's Big A feature is the Grade 3 Go for Wand at a mile, which somehow doesn't seem enough of an honor for the terrific filly who "gave her life for our pleasure."

And neither does one mile seem an appropriate trip unless, of course, your name happens to be Willnt (4-1). This hard hitting NY-Bred 6YO mare is no stranger to open company as she was most recently third in the G1 Ballerina and G2 Gallant Bloom.

The difference here is that she's dropping into a G3, stretches to her most effective distance (4) 2-1-0 with an identical record over this surface. Her late kick fits the speedy dynamic and she can handle any footing.

Taking Willnt to win at 4-1 or greater, an exacta box with the sharp Sweet Whiskey (6-1), dropping out of Keeneland's G2 Raven Run and 3 YO Princess Violet (9-2), developing nicely for Mike Hushion this fall.

Number of Selections since 2007: 1648

Number of Win-Place-Show Finishes: 495-322-256

Amount Wagered: $3,296 [to win only]

Total Dollar Return on Investment: $3,400.40

Profit to Date: $104.40

Written by John Pricci

Comments (4)


 
 

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