Pricci's Free Daily Feature Race Analysis
Five days per week and every racing day during the Saratoga meet, John Pricci will provide horse racing selections of that day's feature race. When the racing schedule dictates otherwise, there will be analysis from other major thoroughbred Tracks
. Check back here 5 days a week for free horse racing selections.
In addition to his race analysis, John will provide commentary in a weekly "On the Line"
column and daily blogs under the "Pricci's Morning Line"
Wednesday, November 21, 2007
Shedding the Bridesmaid Label
Today’s feature boasts many bridesmaid types that figure to have their moments in the sun. The race is for preliminary allowance types, $75,000 optional claiming, in a one-turn Big A mile.
Inda (5-2) hails from a barn that’s currently on a roll. Not unusual since the McGaughey shed traditionally does well at this time of year prior to shipping south for the winter. She finally broke her maiden two starts back. And while she has a late developing pedigree, that seems a bit much for this well bred four-year-old. Still, her recent figures are highly competitive, she likes the distance and attracts Johnny Velazquez.
Moneypenny (7-2) is interesting in that she’s on a delayed pace top, coming out of a series of turf events. She showed improvement first time off Gary Contessa’s claim, she worked purposefully since over today‘s surface and projects to receive a comfortable stalking trip given today’s conditions. The position conscious Eddie Castro is adept at adapting to this kind of race shape.
Stolen Time (3-1) gets class relief here as she finally gets away from state-bred stakes company. One-for-one on this surface, she owns two wins at today’s distance from six tries, making her 1-for-13 doing anything else. Add in tactical speed, a favorable outside position, a trainer who’s 30 percent efficient stretching out off two consecutive sprints and a switch to the white hot Javier Castellano all point to the end of her bridesmaid tendencies here.
Taking the John Kimmel-trained Stolen Time to win at 2-1 or greater, and exacta box with Moneypenny, and keying her first and second in trifectas with the above named pair and Estimable (8-1), stretching out for Kairan McLaughlin beneath the equally hot Alan Garcia.
Running Totals: (133) 46-29-14. Total Dollar Return: $272.10 [win selections only]
Written by John Pricci
Sunday, November 18, 2007
A Red Stripe for All My Friends
Today’s feature is the Gaily Gaily for open class fillies and mares on the turf going one mile and a terrific race it is. You won’t need a road map to find the favorite, Rewrite (5-2). She won the Ticonderoga vs. New York-breds last out, overcoming a slow pace, and now turns back to her most effective distance. Her performance figures are the best in the field, and by a significant margin. Her best effort wins this easily. But I can’t imagine she was pointed toward this and while Alan Garcia is a budding star, he doesn’t know her like Garrett Gomez does. Her late run style makes her prone to troubled trips.
The interesting fillies in here are Rasta Farian (7-2), Trouble Maker (9-2) and Them There Eyes (10-1).
Wish I could give Longshot Them There Eyes a better chance to win at the price. She’s never raced in better form, has tactical speed and an inside slip but returns on short rest. It’s hard to envision a repeat of her recent top efforts given that scenario.
Rasta Farian, meanwhile, has really come to hand for Michael Matz. Her figures have improved with her development as a four-year-old, a mile is her best game, and she has the kind of early speed that should insure a comfortable stalking trip off moderate fractions. Her recent dirt race indicated that the filly is distributing her energy now like a true turf filly. Her lower profile in this group assures bettable odds.
Trouble Maker has improved dramatically over the summer and fall sprinting, and she should handle added ground. However, a class hike accompanies the longer distance. Still it wouldn’t be hard to envision a winning performance with an effort similar to her recent races. Like we said, an interesting heat.
Taking Rasta Farian to win at early line odds of 7-2 or greater, an exacta box with Rewrite, and trifecta keys of Rasta Farian with the other aforementioned fillies.
Running Totals: (132) 46-29-14. Total Dollar Return: $272.10 [win selections only]
Written by John Pricci
Saturday, November 17, 2007
Shippers Dominate Stuyvesant Form
Today’s feature is a staple of the Aqueduct fall season, the Grade 3 Stuyvesant at nine furlongs for older horses. This renewal has drawn an array of talent from various venues and they seem to hold the key to this. We’ll concentrate on two of those shippers, Awfully Smart (4-1) and Barcola (5-2).
Awfully Smart is racing in raging form for Alan Goldberg, a prolific ship-in horseman. Attracting an underrated Rajiv Maragh, this four-year-old is by definition the fastest of this group. Not only does he have excellent tactical speed but his stamina will permit him to run early and late and still get the job done. At early line odds, he is an attractive play for a barn that’s 21 percent efficient with horses seeking to repeat.
Barcola clearly is the most improved horse in this group and comes up to this seven weeks fresh for Mark Hennig. We might be caught in an early line trap here as it’s a poor percentage move backing an runner from the extreme outside slip with the short run into the first turn, particularly as the favorite. But if the crowd sees it the same way, his post time odds might be even higher than the early line. Hennig has been impressed with how Kendrick Karmouche handles the 4-year-old and the rider will ship north from his Maryland base.
Taking Awfully Smart to win at 3-1 or greater and an exacta box with Barcola. (These two are so close that if their odds were reversed, so might have been the play. Interesting two-turner, indeed).
Running Totals: (131) 46-29-14. Total Dollar Return: $272.10 [win selections only]
Written by John Pricci