Pricci's Free Daily Feature Race Analysis

Whenever his daily work schedule permits, HorseRaceInsider executive editor John Pricci will analyze that day's feature race from a major thoroughbred-racing jurisdiction.

Wednesday, April 04, 2012

Florida Invasion

A terribly tricky feature at Aqueduct this afternoon, a starter handicap where some of the best form has come from the inner track, where races of this type are around two turns, not one.

Also, there’s one shipping up from South Florida, which is OK, even preferable, except for the fact that we’re talking about a lifetime best effort—and best by a lot. Still, this is the time of year when “strangers,” especially those shippers from the south, excel.

Roman Invasion (6-1) is adaptable enough to come from off the pace but currently sharp enough to contest the pace before drawing off to win at a demanding 7-1/2 furlong middle sprint distance by open lengths.

The spacing is acceptable as his Double Top occurred in early February, yielding sufficient recovery time.

Taking Roman Invasion to win at 5-1 or greater and key boxing him in exactas with Joan’s Choice (9-5), exiting a key race producing two next out winners.

Running Totals: (1056) 325-207-155 Total Dollar Return: $2,239.60 [win selections only]

Written by John Pricci


Sunday, April 01, 2012

Property Values Up This Weekend in New Orleans

The second meaningful Kentucky Derby prep takes place in the Bayou with the closing day Fair Grounds feature, the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby.

The two favorites, Mark Valeski (2-1), coupled in the Jones Boys entry with Mr. Bowling, and Cigar Street (7-2) are deserving favorites.

Mark Valeski, in fact, night have won the G2 Risen Star with a courageous narrow loss after getting involved in the bumping match with the winning El Padrino who had the advantage of outside position throughout the long stretch run.

Cigar Street is one of those 3-year-olds that has quickly come to hand, following up an energy efficient effort in his sprint debut followed by a double-digits score going two turns over the ground on March 10.

He could be anything, but then is a very tall order, going from the maiden ranks into Grade 2 company while stretching to a demanding 9 furlongs.

The horse that peaks our interest is Shared Property (10-1) who, after an extremely wide trip try in his season’s debut, the LeComte, he suffered through a moderately paced Risen Star while losing ground once again.

Since that effort, trainer Tom Amoss has added blinkers and the colt responded with two sensational morning moves.

Add the fact that Amoss is a worthy and profitable 33% efficient with third-off-the-layup runners and moves closer to the rail off two wide draws, settling into the middle of the bulky pack. His late running style suits the race shape nicely.

We’ll take Shared Property to win at 6-1 or greater and key-boxing him in exotics with the two favorites and Rousing Sermon (6-1) who should benefit from today’s conditions shipping East for Hollandorfer with strong finishing Mike Smith timing his late run.

Running Totals: (1055) 325-207-155 Total Dollar Return: $2,239.60 [win selections only]

Written by John Pricci


Saturday, March 31, 2012

State of the Union

Finally, Florida Derby day. Happy 61st Birthday, Run for the Orchids!

Everyone knows how important a Kentucky Derby prep this has been in recent years, thanks especially to the Palm Meadows training center for that. Only one historical stat for you: Forty Fla. Derby entrants in the first 60 runnings have won a total of 55 Triple Crown races, including 21 Kentucky Derbies.

Additionally, everyone knows how good a colt Union Rags (6-5) is. What no one knows, with the possible exceptions of Michael Matz and Peter Brette, how just how good. Back to everyone; we all should have some idea after tomorrow. I think he's absolutely the real deal, on the brink of becoming recognized as a great horse. To use the word great, however, let's see how tomorrow and the Derby, Preakness and Belmont turn out first.

So as they say, I can't beat him and stubbornly refuse to try. Worse, El Padrino (2-1) is the one he has to beat. After that, it's Take Charge Indy (5-1). As Clemenza once said of a pistol, "it's as cold as the make 'em."

Taking Union Rags to win, no price restrictions, and keying him first in seconds and trifectas with El Padrino and Take Charge Indy.

Running Totals: (1053) 325-206-154 Total Dollar Return: $2,239.60 [win selections only] {Friday results not included}

Written by John Pricci


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