Pricci's Free Daily Feature Race Analysis
Five days per week and every racing day during the Saratoga meet, John Pricci will provide horse racing selections of that day's feature race. When the racing schedule dictates otherwise, there will be analysis from other major thoroughbred Tracks
. Check back here 5 days a week for free horse racing selections.
In addition to his race analysis, John will provide commentary in a weekly "On the Line"
column and daily blogs under the "Pricci's Morning Line"
Sunday, March 15, 2009
No Chance to Beat Mor Chances
Today’s feature to close the week is the Kim’s Chance for older New York-bred sprinters. If I said I could beat the favorite, I’d be lying.
On anyone’s performance figures, Mor Chances (3-5) holds a commanding edge. Worse, if you want to beat him, is that he has the five post in a five-horse field, won his last on the lead throughout and his prior coming from well off the pace. Trained by Rick Dutrow and re-ridden by Richard Migliore, there is no discernable weakness here.
The only way to benefit is trying to nail the exacta, and value may be available here. Little Wise Guy (8-1) is coming off a New Pace Top and his prior final figure was competitive with the remainder.
Forced to take Mor Chances to win, no price restrictions, an exacta box with Little Wise Guy, extra tickets with the favorite on top.
Running Totals: (382) 117-78-52 Total Dollar Return: $822.40 [win selections only]
Written by John Pricci
Saturday, March 14, 2009
Ya’ Gotta’ Have Heart
Today’s feature is the Grade 3 Cicada for three year old fillies sprinting six furlongs. As you might expect, we find a field with horses returning on a month’s rest, or making their season’s debuts at various stages of development.
With this being a sprint, it’s always wise to look for a pace edge and we found a filly who qualifies nicely. Not only is she coming out of the hottest-pace races recently but she doesn’t need the lead to be effective.
Using pace at any point of the race when sprinting is how races are won. Hopefully, that’s just what C.C. Lopez will do with Heart Ashley (5-2), shipping north from New Orleans for Steve Asmussen.
While her final figures are not as fast as many of her rivals, she’s poised for a forward move and likely is set to use her pace edge to best advantage. Leave it up to C.C. to play this one off the break. If she’s on the lead, fine. If not, that’s good, too.
The one to feat is Dream Play (7-5), recent blowout winner of the Dearly Precious in very fast time. But she figures to be under the gun meeting quicker and breaking from the rail, not to mention that she’s eligible for a regression.
On the plus side, however, she’s making her third start off the layup, a profitable 26 percent angle for the McLaughlin barn, and her recent half-mile work in :47 3/5, termed breezing, was second fastest of 113 three-year-old to work during a seven-day span. She’s be a tough out.
But we’ll take any value offered on Heart Ashley, looking for 5-2 or better, and making an exacta box with the favorite.
Running Totals: (381) 116-78-52 Total Dollar Return: $810.60 [win selections only]
Written by John Pricci
Friday, March 13, 2009
A Fugitive from Chalk Dust
The Friday feature is actually the third race today and despite the small field it’s highly contentious and open. These three year old allowance fillies are at various stages of development and are either returning on relatively short rest making their returns from lengthy layups or brief freshening, in short, a little of everything.
The temptation is to try to beat the favorite and we will, conceding that Flashing (8-5) is fastest and returning from a rough trip in a stakes for leading rider Ramon Dominguez at the very live Albertrani barn. Boleyn (5-2) is classy, having finished second in the Demoiselle last fall and also hails from a hot outfit, Todd Pletcher’s.
But while Karakorum Fugitive (3-1) is returning in three weeks and picking up weight to carry 122 pounds, there’s really no telling how good this undefeated New York bred is. She just might be good enough to make it three straight given the pole, tactical speed and her ability to overcome trouble.
Her recent bullet half-mile work in :47 1/5 was the fastest of 113 three-year-olds to work during a seven day period--and that includes colts. As we said, no telling how good, but we’re sure to find out a lot more here.
Taking Karakorum Fugitive to win at 5-2 or greater, boxing an exacta with Flashing, and adding Boleyn and McVictory (8-1), experienced and reuniting with Maragh, to the trifecta mix second and third.
Running Totals: (380) 116-78-51 Total Dollar Return: $810.60 [win selections only]
Written by John Pricci